Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills prediction, pick for NFL Week 9 on Monday 11/09/26

Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell has spent much of the season asking his defense to protect a narrow lead. The Vikings sacked Detroit quarterback Jared Goff four times last Sunday and held the Lions to one touchdown in three red-zone trips, then went three-and-out when they needed a late answer. At 6–1, they’ll turn to Carson Wentz against Buffalo on Monday, with starting quarterback Kyler Murray sidelined by a hamstring injury and, just generally, poor play. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Buffalo Bills.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

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Vikings vs. Bills prediction, preview

Josh Allen will face some of the same trouble Goff encountered. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed on 73.6% of opposing dropbacks through seven games, generating pressure on 46.4%. He threatens gaps across the line and changes which defenders rush, forcing blockers to settle their assignments while Allen reads the coverage behind them. Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins missed all three practices with injured ribs; left guard Alec Anderson remains questionable with an ankle injury. Buffalo could spend a painful evening sorting those protections out.

Detroit eventually found room on the ground, rushing for 164 yards after halftime. On the winning touchdown drive, the Lions ran six straight times for 62 yards before Goff threw the scoring pass. Bills running back James Cook has piled up 707 yards at 5.1 per carry, and I expect coach Joe Brady to stay with him even if Minnesota squeezes the first few attempts. Cook needed 21 carries for 80 yards against Baltimore. The Bills may have to work through similar stretches against Flores’ front, particularly if Dawkins and Anderson sit.

Allen has already scored nine rushing touchdowns, and he ranks third among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play under pressure this season. Flores will force some hurried throws and punts. Once Allen escapes, Minnesota’s defenders have to continue covering receiver DJ Moore and tight end Dalton Kincaid, who combined for 168 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore. Both finished the practice week without a game designation. Buffalo’s ability to turn a few broken plays into first downs will matter against a defense that has allowed 13.3 points per game.

Bills vs. Vikings pick, best bet

Wentz has an incredibly frustrated and motivated Justin Jefferson and a Buffalo secondary allowing 254.7 passing yards per game. The Bills spent most of last week’s 36–10 victory facing Baltimore’s replacement quarterbacks, and I expect Wentz to sustain more drives than that depleted offense managed. He has completed 23 of 39 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns this season, with a start against Chicago and a relief appearance against Green Bay. O’Connell needs him to find Jefferson often enough to keep Minnesota close while the defense attacks Allen.

I’m taking Buffalo to win by four. Cook’s workload and Allen’s ability to create under pressure give the Bills ways to move the chains against Flores, while Jefferson keeps the Vikings within reach. If both Dawkins and Anderson are inactive, I’ll reassess how much Buffalo can ask of its replacements against that rush.

Best bet: Bills -3.5 (-110).

Projected score: Bills 24, Vikings 20.

Best Bet: Bills -3.5 (-110) at Vikings