Josh Allen Rushing Yards Pick for Bills vs. Vikings

Closing out the NFL’s Week 9 slate, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will face the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The Bills have built a solid lead in the AFC East with their 6-1 record to start the year. However, they will be tested against a tough Minnesota defense with plenty of football still left to play.

Looking at the odds for MNF, the Bills enter as 3.5-point road favorites with -198 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Vikings are +164 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 45.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also check out game previews and plenty more on DraftKings Network. But for now, let’s look at my top Josh Allen prop bet for this matchup.

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Pick vs. Vikings on MNF

Josh Allen Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Josh Allen and the Bills have had a stellar start to the season. The 2024 MVP has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions so far. He has also been a weapon with his legs, rushing 55 times for 270 yards and nine scores.

This is a difficult matchup against a high-level Vikings defense. Minnesota enters the matchup allowing an NFL-best 13.3 points per game. They have allowed the second-fewest total yards per contest and rank first in opponent passing yards and pass TDs allowed.

Brian Flores has built a unique defensive unit with plenty of confusing blitz looks and deceptive pressures designed to challenge opposing quarterbacks. Minnesota’s ability to generate pressure is the foundation of its approach, and the disguise is impressive. The Vikings have been pretty effective at limiting opposing QBs on the ground, holding them to the league’s eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (11.6).

But Allen is no typical NFL quarterback when it comes to rushing. Standing 6-foot-5, Allen takes full advantage of his frame and physicality. The four-time Pro Bowler excels when facing extra pass rushers, with 19 scrambles for 204 yards entering Week 9. Outside the red zone, most of Allen’s rushing opportunities come in ad-lib situations where he is under pressure and forced to adjust.

Expect this to happen regularly against this Vikings defense, with Allen responding accordingly. He has recorded as many as 121 rushing yards in a game this season and is averaging 38.6 rushing yards per contest. Allen has recorded at least five carries in every game and 10 or more in two of his seven appearances. Expect Minnesota to throw plenty of creative blitzes his way, and for Allen to respond by escaping the pocket and gaining chunk yards on the ground.