18 just feels like the number. Do I have Caleb Williams syndrome? Do I miss Peyton Manning? Have I seen too much of Paintin’ Manning? Or am I just all over J.J. McCarthy this week? Either way, not entirely arbitrarily, but indeed with some degree of hipfire-performance threshold, I’ve decided, this week, for must-starts, I want to tout guys who can break into the top-18 performances of their respective classes. That feels like a great bellwether for fantastic performance this week, and affords analysis for a tier of prospects outside the high-end WR/RB2 ranks to potentially win you your week.
And so—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 9 edition. The ride-the-wave edition. Ahem.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 9. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 9
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 9: Top five wide receivers to smash-start
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough had a shot at a deep touchdown to Chris Olave in Paris and missed it. He found Olave six times for 56 yards on 10 targets, a fair bit of work for an afternoon that cried out for one clean deep ball. Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward has conceded a miserly 128 yards across 303 coverage snaps. Shough may spend another Sunday working for every completion outside. I’m starting Olave comfortably inside the top 18.
Cleveland plays Cover 1 on a whopping 44.2% of opposing dropbacks, and Olave has gained 3.34 yards per route against it this season. Against single-high looks more broadly, Shough has gone deep on 16.5% of his dropbacks, more than twice his rate against two-high. The Giants and Vikings sent extra rushers relentlessly. Cleveland has stayed below a 40% blitz rate in every game, and Shough may have an extra beat to look downfield. Even as the Saints have struggled to score, Olave has caught 14 passes on 23 targets over his last three games. The catches underneath are there for him. I like their chances of hitting a long one this time, too.
Jameson Williams, DET (at Dolphins)
On a day when Detroit could win by handing the ball off, Lions quarterback Jared Goff still went to Jameson Williams on six of his 25 throws. He hit him up the seam early, and Williams finished with four catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, his fifth in three games. Detroit rushed for 230 yards, yet Williams drew one of his two biggest target shares of the season. Both have come since the bye. I’m counting on Goff to look his way that often in Miami.
The Dolphins have held outside receivers to the sixth-fewest yards per game, and quarterbacks have gotten a hefty 9.38 yards a target when they’ve thrown out there. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs tore through Minnesota for 153 yards. If Miami lets him do that again, Detroit could spend the fourth quarter feeding him while Williams runs fewer routes. I’m starting Williams inside the top 18 for the damage he can do while the game’s close. Miami has allowed a league-worst 0.52 EPA per dropback against play action. If the Dolphins take a step toward Gibbs, Goff should have a shot downfield.
Ladd McConkey, LAC (vs. Texans)
The Rams stopped Ladd McConkey just shy of the goal line after he gathered a tipped Hail Mary. He gained 54 of his 86 yards on that one catch. The throw I’d carry into Sunday came earlier, when Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert hit him over the middle with room to run. McConkey ran a route on 89% of the Chargers’ dropbacks in his first game back.
Houston plays Cover 3 on 40.1% of opposing dropbacks. McConkey has gained a gaudy 3.03 yards per route against it this season and a healthy 2.39 over his career. Herbert has thrown for 8.59 yards per attempt against it this year, too. Houston edge rusher Danielle Hunter has pressured the quarterback at least three times in five straight games. Chargers left tackle Joe Alt just got through his first start on the left this season without allowing a pressure. I have McConkey near the back of the top 18. The Chargers have had a miserable time finishing drives, and Houston gives up explosive passes at the league’s second-highest rate (11.8%). McConkey can do plenty for a PPR lineup between the twenties.
Jordan Addison, MIN (vs. Bills)
Jordan Addison slipped free deep against Detroit, and Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray left a potential 38-yard touchdown short. Addison finished with three catches for 66 yards on eight targets. I’m putting him inside the top 18 Monday, with Carson Wentz taking over at quarterback and Buffalo allowing the fifth-most PPR points to receivers lined up outside.
Wentz has found Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson often and to great effect. In four games with Wentz last season, Addison went for at least 114 yards twice and caught a touchdown in each of the other two. Against Detroit, Addison ran a route on 91% of Minnesota’s dropbacks and drew 173 of their 323 air yards. The Bills have been fairly stingy per target against outside receivers. If they hurry Wentz into throwing short all night, Addison could go a long time between catches. I’m counting on Wentz to give him several cracks downfield, where the Vikings were already asking him to win before the quarterback change.
Caleb Douglas, MIA (vs. Lions)
Caleb Douglas took a catch 63 yards to the end zone against the Jets, one of two touchdowns in his return. A week later, he caught four for 43 against New England and led Miami’s wideouts by running a route on 81.1% of dropbacks. I like seeing him out there that often now that Miami is snapping the ball quicker. The Dolphins have run at least 60 plays in every game since Week 4, and opponents have thrown against Detroit a league-high 8.2 percentage points more often than expected.
Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis goes deep on 18.5% of his dropbacks against single-high looks. Douglas draws .23 targets per route against them, up from .11 against everything else. Detroit shows single-high on 57.3% of dropbacks and has yielded a league-high 76.9 receiving yards per game on deep throws. Miami slot receiver Malik Washington has fared considerably better against man. If the Lions hurry Willis into getting rid of the ball early, I’ll take my chances with Douglas once he turns upfield (a terrific 8.77 yards after the catch per reception). With the routes Miami is giving him, I’m starting him near the back of the top 18.
