What if I told 18 just feels like the number. Do I have Caleb Williams syndrome? Do I miss Peyton Manning? Have I seen too much of Paintin’ Manning? Or am I just all over J.J. McCarthy this week? Either way, not entirely arbitrarily, but indeed with some degree of hipfire-performance threshold, I’ve decided, this week, for must-starts, I want to tout guys who can break into the top-18 performances of their respective classes. That feels like a great bellwether for fantastic performance this week, and affords analysis for a tier of prospects outside the high-end WR/RB2 ranks to potentially win you your week.
And so—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 9 edition. The ride-the-wave edition. Ahem.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 9. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 9
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 9: Top five FLEX plays to start
Colston Loveland, CHI (vs. Buccaneers)
Two throws into his night against Seattle, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams had already found Colston Loveland—twice. He went back to his tight end once more on the opening touchdown drive. With veteran Cole Kmet on injured reserve, rookie tight end Sam Roush played 53% of the snaps and went out on about a third of the dropbacks. Chicago sent Loveland out on 83% of the routes. The Bears could hand running back D’Andre Swift the ball 27 times and still throw nine passes to Loveland, who caught seven for 65 yards.
Tampa Bay leans hard on Cover 3 and Cover 4, playing them on nearly seven of every 10 opposing dropbacks. Loveland has averaged a modest 1.27 yards per route against those coverages. I’ll live with ordinary gains from a tight end who’s caught at least six balls and gained at least 65 yards in three straight games. I’d use him in the FLEX with my tight end spot already filled. Five catches for 55 yards gets him to 10.5 PPR points. Commanders receiver Antonio Williams caught five for 54 last week and now draws the Rams. With six catches all season, Dolphins back Ollie Gordon II may need a touchdown to get there against Detroit.
Jaylen Waddle, DEN (at Panthers)
On second-and-18 against Kansas City, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix hit Jaylen Waddle for 35 yards. When Denver faced fourth down at the 1, Nix went to him again for the touchdown. Waddle caught three of six targets for 39 yards and hauled in a two-point conversion. Playing through a chest injury, he ran roughly half of Denver’s routes and still led the team with a 25% first-read share. He practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday.
Carolina has played Cover 3 on 48.9% of opposing dropbacks, and Nix has gone outside more often against it than against other coverages over the past two seasons. Waddle has earned a target on a team-high 30% of his routes against Cover 3 this year. He’s cleared 50 yards just once all season, and I’d still flex him for a shot at a WR2 finish if he gets his usual routes back. Interim Panthers defensive coordinator Todd Wash could change what Nix sees. Denver could also spend Sunday feeding rookie back Jonah Coleman, in which case Waddle may have to get loose on one of a handful of throws.
Rashee Rice, KC (vs. Jets)
Rashee Rice scored on a crosser in his first game back from a hamstring injury. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked to him first eight times against Denver, even with Rice running a little over 60% of the routes. He caught seven passes for 53 yards and was back to practicing in full Thursday. I’ll start him for what happens once Mahomes gets a short throw into his hands. Rice has added 7.8 yards after the catch per reception this season.
The Jets blitz on 43.7% of dropbacks, and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has punished defenses for sending extra rushers (2.79 yards per route against the blitz over two seasons). Kelce has drawn 18% of Kansas City’s targets in Rice’s four full games, with Rice at 17% and Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy at 15%. Mahomes has good reason to go back to Kelce, especially given how little Rice has squeezed out of his 45 routes against Cover 1 and Cover 2, the Jets’ two most frequent coverages (1.13 yards per route). Rice can still piece together six catches for 55 on last week’s workload. Another ball near the goal line could put him well inside the top 24.
Stefon Diggs, WAS (vs. Rams)
Washington sprung Stefon Diggs on a rub route against Philadelphia, and quarterback Jayden Daniels hit him for an eight-yard touchdown. Diggs needed it. He finished with three catches for 38 yards and has landed between 33 and 55 receiving yards in every game this year. In Washington’s first full game without injured wideout Terry McLaurin, Diggs ran a season-high 75.8% of the routes. Daniels threw him six balls and sent seven to rookie receiver Antonio Williams.
Washington has thrown more often than expected in every game since Daniels returned, and the Rams may make him work his way downfield a few yards at a time. They’ve shown two deep safeties on 62.2% of opposing dropbacks. Daniels has managed just 5.21 yards per attempt against those looks, and Diggs has drawn a target on 30% of his 70 routes against them. Los Angeles lost cornerback Jaylen Watson for the season, and fellow starter Trent McDuffie missed two practices with a back injury. Reserve corners Josh Wallace and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. have both played well. I’ll flex Diggs with five catches within reach if Daniels throws more than he did against Philadelphia. Another red-zone score is still his clearest route into the top 24.
Omar Cooper Jr., NYJ (at Chiefs)
A week after tearing off gains of 52 and 60 yards against Miami, Omar Cooper Jr. ran 74.3% of the routes against Las Vegas and never drew a target from Jets quarterback Geno Smith. The rookie had scored in back-to-back games, putting up 103 yards at New England and 115 against Miami. Now the Jets have ruled out receiver Garrett Wilson with a concussion. Smith threw his way 12 times against the Raiders.
Cooper has run 63.2% of his routes from the slot, where the Chiefs have let receivers beat their schedule-adjusted baseline by 3.3 fantasy points per game. Kansas City has been the league’s stingiest defense against outside receivers by the same measure. Jets wideout Adonai Mitchell just torched Las Vegas for 142 yards on seven catches, and with running back Breece Hall back, New York has another reason to run as long as the score allows. They’ve thrown more than expected in just two of eight games. If the Chiefs make Smith chase points, I can see him sending six or seven balls Cooper’s way inside while Mitchell gets his share outside. I’ll take that swing in the FLEX. Cooper can crack the top 24 on five catches if he breaks one.
