What if I told 18 just feels like the number. Do I have Caleb Williams syndrome? Do I miss Peyton Manning? Have I seen too much of Paintin’ Manning? Or am I just all over J.J. McCarthy this week? Either way, not entirely arbitrarily, but indeed with some degree of hipfire-performance threshold, I’ve decided, this week, for must-starts, I want to tout guys who can break into the top-18 performances of their respective classes. That feels like a great bellwether for fantastic performance this week, and affords analysis for a tier of prospects outside the high-end WR/RB2 ranks to potentially win you your week.
And so—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 9 edition. The ride-the-wave edition. Ahem.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 9. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 9
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 9
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 9: Top five running backs to start
Jonah Coleman, DEN (at Panthers)
After halftime against Kansas City, J.K. Dobbins played one snap. Jonah Coleman played 19 of 21, having trailed Dobbins eight to five in the first quarter. With fellow back RJ Harvey on injured reserve, I wanted to see who Broncos coach Sean Payton would send out near the goal line. Denver gave their backs five carries inside the 10 and Coleman took every one. He scored once on 11 carries for 41 yards and caught four passes for another 63. That’s a hell of a half-game takeover.
Payton has leaned harder on the run since taking over the calls, and Carolina has let running backs rush for 115.6 yards a game, fifth-most in the league. Dobbins could take back a series or two and I’d still start Coleman as a strong RB2. The rookie ran a route on half of Denver’s dropbacks against Kansas City, so he can pick up catches if the Panthers make the Broncos throw. Give him the same share of the carries inside the 10 and he could finish in the top 12.
Woody Marks, HOU (at Chargers)
I’d give Woody Marks another 15 carries against this Chargers front without a second thought. With fellow back David Montgomery sidelined, Houston has every reason to do it. Marks carried at least that often and cleared 80 scrimmage yards in each of the three games before the bye, all without scoring. Now he gets the defense that let the Rams’ backs run for 129 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries last week.
The Chargers have given up 107.7 rushing yards a game to backs, eighth-most in the league, and they’ve been especially vulnerable when defending the run from light boxes (+0.16 EPA per rush allowed). Houston has to make those snaps count. The line has labored all year, and Marks has managed just 1.52 yards after contact per carry. Get him through the line cleanly and I’ll take my chances with him as an RB2. He caught seven passes over those three games before the bye, too. A couple would help if the Texans struggle to move the Chargers up front, though Los Angeles has been stingy with receiving yards to backs.
Quinshon Judkins, CLE (at Saints)
When Pittsburgh put Cleveland behind early, the Browns had a lot more for Dylan Sampson to do. He ran a route on 54% of their dropbacks and caught six passes for 62 yards. Quinshon Judkins ran a route on 18% and scraped out 25 yards on 11 carries. Another early deficit could leave Judkins waiting on the sideline while Sampson catches passes. Since Sampson returned in Week 7, though, Cleveland has still handed Judkins the ball on every goal-line carry.
The Browns ought to have more time to run in New Orleans, where the Saints have given up the second-most adjusted yards before contact per carry to backs (2.58). Jaylen Warren ran for 101 yards on 18 carries against them. With Deshaun Watson in concussion protocol, Cleveland may turn to Shedeur Sanders, and the Saints could crowd the line until he gives them a reason to back off. I’ll start Judkins as a touchdown-sensitive RB2. The longer Cleveland can stick with him on early downs, the better their chance of getting him close enough to use him where they’ve trusted him most.
Devin Singletary, NYG (at Eagles)
Cam Skattebo ripped off 42 yards in overtime against Houston and hurt his hamstring. The Giants handed the ball to Devin Singletary on the next snap, and he ran 30 yards to win it. Singletary finished with 41 yards on five carries and caught three passes for another 14, all on 29% of the offensive snaps. Even in a reserve role, he averaged about two high-value touches a game in Weeks 5–8. Roughly 30% of his opportunities ended in a catch or a carry inside the 10.
I’d love to see what Singletary does with a full afternoon of handoffs against this front. Philadelphia has faced the league’s second-most rush attempts and let backs get 1.95 adjusted yards downfield per carry before contact. Opposing backs have run for 115.8 yards per game against the Eagles, fourth-most in the league. With Tyrone Tracy Jr. on injured reserve and Skattebo sidelined Wednesday and Thursday, Singletary could get first crack at those carries. If Skattebo sits, I’m starting him as an RB2. If Skattebo can handle his usual workload, Singletary is a flex. Philadelphia has held backs to 18.6 receiving yards a game, fourth-fewest, so I want the guy getting the handoffs.
Tyler Allgeier, ARI (at Seahawks)
Tyler Allgeier tore off runs of 63 and 52 yards on consecutive carries in Dallas. By the time he was done, he’d rushed 11 times for 147 yards and a touchdown and caught five passes for 44 yards and another score. Arizona barely took him off the field after fellow backs Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight went down (97% of second-half snaps). Love joins James Conner on injured reserve, and Knight missed the first two practices this week with a concussion. If Knight sits, reserve back Evan Hull is next in line behind Allgeier.
Seattle got Allgeier down for 10 yards on five carries in the first meeting and has allowed backs just 1.55 adjusted yards before contact per rush, fourth-fewest in the league. With left tackle Jayden Williams missing practice this week, Arizona may have an even harder time getting Allgeier through the line. I’ll start him as a low-end RB2 if Knight is out. He can spend a good part of Sunday fighting through traffic and still give us a useful PPR day if Arizona gives him the early downs and quarterback Gardner Minshew II throws him a few balls.
