The Sunday Slip: NFL best bets, picks, predictions for 10/25/26

Below is my full betting slip for today’s loaded Week 7 NFL slate, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of most of these already published, if you’re interested in more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both? ¿Por qué no los dos? Feel?

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Dan Johnson’s full Week 7 NFL betslip

9:30 a.m.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints

Best bet: Steelers -3 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Germie Bernard over 51.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

Pittsburgh running back Jaylen Warren should find Paris accommodating. The Saints let backs chew through 116.8 rushing yards per game, with 2.51 adjusted yards before contact per carry. The Saints missed tackles against Atlanta, then yielded sustained rushing to Minnesota. Warren can carry more of the burden after Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers needed 49 throws last week.

Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has scraped together 240 passing yards over two games. He has ten red-zone touchdown passes without an interception, but Pittsburgh has admitted opponents to the red zone only ten times through six games. With guard Cesar Ruiz questionable and Pittsburgh’s principal rushers cleared, Shough should struggle to reach the 20. Steelers rookie receiver Germie Bernard has caught 17 passes for 167 yards over two games; he averages 2.29 YPRR against Cover 3, which New Orleans plays a league-high 54.6% of the time. Warren and Bernard should carry Pittsburgh into scoring range more often.

Projected score: Steelers 26, Saints 20.

1:00 p.m.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Best bet: 49ers -2.5 (-115) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: George Kittle anytime touchdown (+105) | Stake: 1U

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy can dissect the coverages Atlanta uses most. He averages 8.54 YPA against Cover 1 and Cover 3; the Falcons use those looks on 59.4% of plays while conceding 268.7 passing yards per game. With receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel out, 49ers tight end George Kittle should be awfully busy. He draws targets on 26% of routes, averages 2.44 YPRR and drew three end-zone targets last week. His touchdown appeals at plus money.

Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has turned 29% of pressures into sacks. San Francisco has nine sacks over two games already played without edge rusher Nick Bosa. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson can punish a rush with catches, yet Atlanta has targeted him on just 9.7% of throws in Penix starts. The Falcons have curtailed a useful answer to their protection problems. Penix risks more stalled drives; Purdy has Kittle’s substantial receiving workload to fall back on. I’ll lay 2.5, with three outside my limit.

Projected score: 49ers 30, Falcons 26.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Best bet: Over 46.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Tee Higgins over 65.5 receiving yards (-114) | Stake: 1U

Cleveland wrecked Baltimore’s zone runs last week, then held quarterback Tyler Huntley to 124 passing yards across the final nine possessions. Cincinnati just let Miami run for 217 yards. With Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson out, running back Derrick Henry gets his interior blockers back against a front that has far more to prove.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns against Miami despite gaining only 190 passing yards. His primary receivers are healthy; Baltimore is missing safety Jaylinn Hawkins and edge rusher Tavius Robinson. Bengals receiver Tee Higgins has battered man coverage for 5.76 YPRR and a 43% target share, meeting a defense that plays man on 39% of snaps. Baltimore’s outside coverage still makes 65.5 a demanding yardage line. I prefer the over to laying three with Cincinnati: Henry can revive the Ravens’ stalled possessions, while Burrow has his receivers back to attack the depleted defense.

Projected score: Bengals 27, Ravens 23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Best bet: Over 44.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Bucky Irving over 65.5 rushing yards (-114) | Stake: 1U

Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving endured a bruising 46-yard afternoon against Pittsburgh and still played 91% of early-down snaps and every two-minute snap. Carolina allows 5.1 YPC, with a league-worst 3.1 yards after contact per attempt. Irving gets to test considerably worse tackling with the same substantial workload.

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield practiced fully all week but remains questionable. With him, Tampa Bay targets backs on 26.1% of attempts, up from 14.1% with the replacement. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has attempted at least 36 passes in every game and just threw for 281 yards against Philadelphia. Tampa Bay’s man coverage can challenge receivers Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan, although the Buccaneers lose safety Antoine Winfield Jr. I like Young’s persistent throwing against that diminished secondary, with Irving attacking Carolina’s tackling. The over requires Mayfield to start.

Projected score: Panthers 27, Buccaneers 24.

New York Giants at Houston Texans

Best bet: Giants +10 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards (-132) | Stake: 1U

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has torched extra rushers for 8.8 YPA, three touchdowns and no interceptions across 56 dropbacks, escaping without a sack. The Giants send five or more on 42% of dropbacks. With Texans tackle Blake Fisher out, New York has reason to bring pressure; Stroud has repeatedly punished that approach. Houston has given him at least 35 dropbacks in five of six games. His 250-yard alternative gets my money.

Giants quarterback J.J. McCarthy benefited from drop coverage and a tipped 49-yarder during his 243-yard relief appearance. He still has receiver Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah Likely, whom New York has targeted a combined 78 times over three games. Houston is missing safeties Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship, and ranks 20th defensively at -.002 EPA/play. Nabers and Likely should catch enough against that depleted secondary to make Houston work for the win. I’ll take ten with New York.

Projected score: Texans 27, Giants 20.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Best bet: Vikings -6.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions (+109) | Stake: 1U

Indianapolis squandered a 13-0 halftime lead while quarterback Daniel Jones absorbed six sacks and threw two interceptions. Minnesota returns from their bye about as healthy as they’ve been: both starting tackles, receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson are cleared. Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson practiced fully, while Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner is out. Quarterback Kyler Murray finally gets a fuller cast around him.

Hockenson earned targets on 28% of routes through Week 5. With Addison back and Jefferson threatening outside, he should remain a frequent stop in Murray’s progression. I’ll back him to catch five at plus money. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor gained 151 scrimmage yards last week, including 57 receiving. Indianapolis nevertheless loses tight end Tyler Warren, narrowing Jones’s options against the rush. Taylor can make Minnesota work for the cover. I’m backing the Vikings’ restored passing game at 6.5, with seven outside my limit.

Projected score: Vikings 27, Colts 16.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Best bet: Jets -4.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Geno Smith over 21.5 completions (+107) | Stake: 1U

Jets quarterback Geno Smith sends 75.6% of his throws fewer than ten yards downfield. Miami has allowed opponents to complete an astonishing 87 of 97 attempts there. New York receiver Garrett Wilson ran 94% of routes last week, while receiver Omar Cooper Jr. returned to a 33% first-read share. Smith can find both receivers on the short throws he favors. At plus money, I’ll back Smith to complete 22.

Miami can fight back on the ground after rushing for 217 yards before the bye. But Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis owns a miserable 61.5 passer rating against blitzes, and New York sends extra rushers on 31.5% of dropbacks. The Jets are missing edge rusher Joseph Ossai and linebacker Kiko Mauigoa; eight of their 17 sacks also came against Cleveland. I’m allowing Miami room to run and distrust the passing game when they need to throw. Smith can outscore Willis through those short completions, with Jets running back Breece Hall’s questionable quad limiting the rushing forecast.

Projected score: Jets 23, Dolphins 16.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Best bet: Browns -2.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Deshaun Watson under 209.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1U

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has absorbed thirteen sacks over two games, averaging fewer than 160 passing yards with a dreadful 3.69 ANY/A. Tennessee has sixteen sacks of their own. His yardage under belongs here even alongside a Cleveland spread bet.

Cleveland has amassed at least three sacks and a takeaway in five straight games, and safety Grant Delpit has cleared concussion protocol. Titans quarterback Cam Ward has thrown an interception in four straight. Tennessee won last week while running only 45 plays and passing for 102 yards, helped by a blocked-punt touchdown and short fields. Cleveland gets running backs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson back; receiver Denzel Boston averages 2.18 YPRR against zone, which Tennessee plays on 72% of snaps. Watson still has to deliver the ball. At -2.5, I’m betting the Browns can pair enough rushing and short completions with their defense to win another ugly one. After the total fell to 36.5, the under lost too much breathing room.

Projected score: Browns 20, Titans 16.

4:05 p.m.

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Best bet: Under 43.5 (-120) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions (+116) | Stake: 1U

Arizona reached the red zone five times against the Rams and never scored a touchdown. Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett now meets a Denver rush that battered Seattle for 17 quarterback hits and five sacks. Arizona used three tight ends on 41% of plays last week; tight end Trey McBride caught seven of nine targets and averages eight catches over his last five games. Brissett should lean heavily on him again.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix averages just 4.9 air yards per attempt. Running back J.K. Dobbins has succeeded on only 24.7% of carries, second-worst among 54 backs with at least 25 attempts. Arizona offers softer coverage, but Denver still has to turn those short throws and stalled runs into touchdowns. Denver safety Talanoa Hufanga is out and cornerback Pat Surtain II is questionable, giving Brissett room to complete passes. I’m backing McBride to catch eight while Denver’s pressure spoils Arizona’s finishing. Nix and Dobbins should leave some drives for the kicker.

Projected score: Broncos 23, Cardinals 16.

4:25 p.m.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Best bet: Over 54.5 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Christian Watson over 78.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

Packers quarterback Jordan Love averages a hefty 280.7 passing yards per game, with receiver Matthew Golden drawing 130.2 air yards per game. Fellow receiver Christian Watson averages 3.26 YPRR against zone, which Detroit plays on 78% of snaps. The Lions concede 44.9 expected WR PPR points per game. They can rush Love, but Green Bay has two outside receivers capable of making a missed pressure expensive.

Green Bay held Dallas to one completion longer than 17 yards. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs offers Detroit another route downfield against a defense allowing the fourth-most RB fantasy points. Detroit has scored at least 31 points in four of five games and returns from their bye indoors. Packers running back Josh Jacobs can reclaim carries, although Green Bay has cleared just 1.3 yards before contact per rush. Green Bay ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation. Love’s downfield throwing and Gibbs’s work against this front give both teams credible ways to reach 30.

Projected score: Packers 31, Lions 30.

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Best bet: Raiders +3 (-102) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Kyren Williams over 26.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

The Rams managed one third-quarter possession against Arizona. Las Vegas already uses two or fewer receivers on nearly 83% of plays, and quarterback Kirk Cousins just threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo. The Raiders have a well-used heavy-personnel offense to bring at a Rams front missing defensive tackle Poona Ford and linebacker Nate Landman. Tight end Brock Bowers is cleared; Rams cornerback Trent McDuffie remains questionable.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has lost receiver Davante Adams to IR, with receiver Puka Nacua questionable after missing Friday’s practice. Running back Kyren Williams drew six targets last week and has earned a double-digit target share in five games. He also played 71.4% of snaps despite fellow back Blake Corum’s expanded carries. I prefer 26.5 receiving yards to paying -175 for sixty rushing yards, and I’m taking three against Stafford’s depleted receiving corps.

Projected score: Raiders 24, Rams 23.

8:20 p.m.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Best bet: Chiefs +3 (-115) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown (-120) | Stake: 1U

Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle with 665 rushing yards in five games, fresh off 128 yards and seven forced missed tackles. The Chiefs rank fourth in offensive EPA/play. With receiver Rashee Rice out, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has every reason to hand Walker a heavy workload against a Seahawks defense allowing a suffocating 4.7 YPA and 157 passing yards per game.

Seattle forced seven punts after Denver’s opening touchdowns last week, conceding only two first downs thereafter. Quarterback Sam Darnold took five sacks and committed three turnovers, however, and running back Zach Charbonnet remains out. Seattle ranks 22nd in offensive success rate. Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba drew sixteen targets last week, but Darnold still struggled to sustain drives. Kansas City ranks 23rd in pass-play rate; feeding Walker fits their established offense. He had eight green-zone touches last week; I’ll back him to score. Darnold has to protect the ball far better to separate.

Projected score: Chiefs 23, Seahawks 20.