The Sunday Slip: NFL best bets, picks, predictions for 10/24/26

Below is my full betting slip for today’s loaded Week 7 NFL slate, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of most of these already published, if you’re interested in more in-depth analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Why just be one thing when you can be both? ¿Por qué no los dos? Feel?

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Dan Johnson’s full Week 7 NFL betslip

9:30 a.m.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints

Best bet: Steelers -3 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Germie Bernard over 51.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

Pittsburgh can spare quarterback Aaron Rodgers another 49-attempt rescue. Steelers running back Jaylen Warren faces a Saints front allowing 116.8 RB rushing yards per game and 2.51 adjusted yards before contact per carry. New Orleans missed tackles against Atlanta, then conceded sustained rushing against Minnesota; its win over the Giants hardly erased that weakness.

Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has thrown for 240 total yards over two games. With New Orleans guard Cesar Ruiz questionable, he must survive a Steelers rush whose principal starters are cleared. Shough has ten red-zone TD passes without a pick, but Pittsburgh has allowed opponents only ten red-zone trips through six games. I expect the Steelers to create the extra touchdown opportunity that covers three. Their rookie receiver Germie Bernard has 17 catches for 167 yards over two games; his 2.29 YPRR against Cover 3 fits the Saints’ league-high 54.6% use of it. I prefer his yardage to another Rodgers passing-volume bet.

Projected score: Steelers 26, Saints 20.

1:00 p.m.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Best bet: 49ers -2.5 (-115) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: George Kittle anytime touchdown (+105) | Stake: 1U

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has 8.54 YPA against the Cover 1/3 combination Atlanta uses on 59.4% of plays. The Falcons allow 268.7 passing yards per game. Missing 49ers receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel will narrow the attack, but tight end George Kittle earns a target on 26% of routes with 2.44 YPRR and drew three end-zone targets last week. Against Atlanta’s stout run front, Kittle can keep Purdy moving and finish through the air.

Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. converts 29% of pressures into sacks. San Francisco has nine sacks over two games despite edge rusher Nick Bosa’s absence. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson can punish pressure with catches, yet his target share has fallen to 9.7% in Penix starts. Atlanta needs to restore that answer before another deficit pushes Robinson aside. I expect Purdy and Kittle to finish more drives while the 49ers’ rush ends enough Atlanta possessions. I’ll lay 2.5 and back Kittle to score; three remains outside my limit.

Projected score: 49ers 30, Falcons 26.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Best bet: Over 46.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Tee Higgins over 65.5 receiving yards (-114) | Stake: 1U

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is out, but Ravens running back Derrick Henry gets a better chance to sustain drives than he did at Cleveland. The Browns penetrated the zone runs and crowded the box behind man coverage; Ravens replacement Tyler Huntley managed 124 yards across the final nine possessions. Against Cincinnati, which allowed Miami 217 rushing yards before its bye, Henry gets his interior blockers back.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns in that Miami game despite passing for only 190 yards. He returns with his primary receivers healthy, while Ravens safety Jaylinn Hawkins and edge rusher Tavius Robinson are out. Cincinnati receiver Tee Higgins has 5.76 YPRR and a 43% target share against man, which Baltimore uses on 39% of snaps. I prefer the over at 46.5 to laying three: Henry can help Baltimore keep scoring while Burrow and Higgins exploit the missing defenders. Huntley can lean on Henry while Burrow keeps throwing at that depleted secondary.

Projected score: Bengals 27, Ravens 23.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Best bet: Over 44.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Bucky Irving over 65.5 rushing yards (-114) | Stake: 1U

Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving kept 91% of early-down snaps and every two-minute snap through last week’s 46-yard struggle. Carolina allows 5.1 YPC and a league-high 3.1 yards after contact per attempt; Pittsburgh’s front was a much harder test. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield practiced fully all week but remains questionable. His return would restore an offense that targets backs on 26.1% of attempts, versus 14.1% with the replacement.

Carolina quarterback Bryce Young has attempted at least 36 passes in every game, including 281 yards against Philadelphia after the bye. Tampa Bay’s man coverage can bother Panthers receivers Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan, yet both average 17.2 expected PPR points per game and Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is out. Young can keep throwing. With Mayfield active, I expect both teams to sustain enough drives for 45; Irving’s retained workload against this poor tackling makes his rushing over the companion play.

Projected score: Panthers 27, Buccaneers 24.

New York Giants at Houston Texans

Best bet: Giants +10 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards (-132) | Stake: 1U

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has 7.54 ANY/A and +6.0% CPOE, with at least 35 dropbacks in five of six games. The Texans’ league-last 1.47 yards after contact per rush helps explain that passing commitment. New York is without cornerback Greg Newsome and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, so Stroud should keep finding receivers rather than suddenly win through the ground game. I prefer his 250-yard alternative to laying double digits.

Giants quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s 243 relief yards included drop coverage and a tipped 49-yarder; I’m not pricing him as a transformed passer. Houston nevertheless has allowed -.002 EPA/play, 20th, and will be without safeties Jalen Pitre and Reed Blankenship. New York receiver Malik Nabers and tight end Isaiah Likely have drawn 78 combined targets over three games. Even with uneven quarterback play, they can extend enough possessions to keep a Houston win within a touchdown. Houston also returns from London with seven days between games.

Projected score: Texans 27, Giants 20.

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Best bet: Vikings -6.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions (+109) | Stake: 1U

Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones took six sacks and threw two interceptions while the Colts squandered a 13-0 halftime lead. Minnesota returns from its bye with both starting tackles, receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson cleared. Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson practiced fully; Indianapolis cornerback Sauce Gardner is out. Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray can throw beyond the injury-thinned group that won before the bye.

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor gained 151 scrimmage yards last week and can punish overaggressive rushers, but Indianapolis lacks tight end Tyler Warren. Hockenson earned targets on 28% of routes through Week 5; he and Addison can work inside while Jefferson draws attention outside. Vikings running back Jordan Mason also returns to share carries. I expect Hockenson to catch five passes as Minnesota combines better field position with a healthier passing game. Taylor’s receiving work keeps seven outside my limit; I’ll lay 6.5.

Projected score: Vikings 27, Colts 16.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Best bet: Jets -4.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Geno Smith over 21.5 completions (+107) | Stake: 1U

New York quarterback Geno Smith throws 75.6% of his attempts under ten air yards. Miami has allowed 87 completions on 97 throws in that area. Jets receiver Garrett Wilson ran 94% of routes last week, while receiver Omar Cooper Jr. immediately earned a 33% first-read share on his return. New York can sustain passing possessions through both receivers without depending on running back Breece Hall’s questionable quad.

Miami ran for 217 yards before its bye, a reason to take its preferred escape from pressure seriously. The Jets offer a stronger rushing front, and Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis has a 61.5 passer rating against blitzes. New York blitzes on 31.5% of dropbacks and has 17 sacks. Missing edge rusher Joseph Ossai and linebacker Kiko Mauigoa reduces that advantage, but Smith’s short passing should give the Jets more drives that reach scoring range. I expect seven points of separation; his completions prop follows the same specific matchup, without requiring deep completions.

Projected score: Jets 23, Dolphins 16.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Best bet: Browns -2.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Deshaun Watson under 209.5 passing yards (-111) | Stake: 1U

Tennessee won last week while running only 45 plays and throwing for 102 yards; a blocked-punt touchdown and short fields helped rescue the result. Titans quarterback Cam Ward has thrown an interception in four straight games. Cleveland has collected at least three sacks and a takeaway in five consecutive outings, and Browns safety Grant Delpit has cleared concussion protocol. Tennessee must sustain drives against a much more disruptive opponent.

Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has taken thirteen sacks over two games, averaging fewer than 160 passing yards with 3.69 ANY/A. Tennessee brings sixteen sacks of its own, so I’m keeping his yardage under. Cleveland gets running backs Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson back, while receiver Denzel Boston has 2.18 YPRR against zone, which the Titans use on 72% of plays. The Browns have enough ways to complement their defense for a narrow win. I’ll lay 2.5; after the total fell to 36.5, I prefer Cleveland’s pressure advantage to another under.

Projected score: Browns 20, Titans 16.

4:05 p.m.

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Best bet: Under 43.5 (-120) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions (+116) | Stake: 1U

Arizona reached the red zone five times against the Rams and never punched it in. Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett now faces a Denver rush that hit Seattle’s quarterback 17 times and collected five sacks. Arizona used three tight ends on 41% of plays; tight end Trey McBride caught seven of nine targets and has averaged eight catches over his last five games. Denver’s pressure can end drives while Brissett keeps throwing short.

Denver quarterback Bo Nix averages 4.9 air yards per attempt, the lowest through six weeks among 338 qualifying seasons since 2016. He gets a softer secondary here, although the Broncos’ repeated short throws and shared backfield favor a methodical game. Denver safety Talanoa Hufanga is out and cornerback Pat Surtain II is questionable; that makes McBride’s catches more appealing than a Brissett yardage under. I expect Denver to disrupt Arizona’s finishing while its offense takes time to score. McBride can catch eight without either team reaching 24.

Projected score: Broncos 23, Cardinals 16.

4:25 p.m.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Best bet: Over 54.5 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Christian Watson over 78.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love averages 280.7 passing yards. Detroit allows 44.9 expected WR PPR points per game, and Packers receiver Christian Watson has 3.26 YPRR against zone, which the Lions use on 78% of plays. Green Bay receiver Matthew Golden adds 130.2 air yards per game. Detroit can disrupt the protection, but Love’s receivers have repeatedly earned throws that can punish this secondary when the rush misses.

The Packers held Dallas to one completion longer than 17 yards last week; Detroit needn’t imitate that approach. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs leads the expected-point model at 26.9 per game, meeting a Green Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points. Detroit returns from its bye indoors, while Green Bay’s 1.3 yards before contact per carry discourages assuming a run-first reset with running back Josh Jacobs back. Watson’s healthy ankle and coverage fit make his receiving over my prop, with the full-game over supported by Gibbs.

Projected score: Packers 31, Lions 30.

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Best bet: Raiders +3 (-102) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Kyren Williams over 26.5 receiving yards (-112) | Stake: 1U

Arizona held the Rams to one third-quarter possession. Las Vegas uses two or fewer receivers on nearly 83% of plays, so Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins has an established heavy-personnel offense with which to challenge a Rams front missing defensive tackle Poona Ford and linebacker Nate Landman. Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is cleared; Los Angeles cornerback Trent McDuffie remains questionable.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has lost receiver Davante Adams to IR, while receiver Puka Nacua is questionable after missing Friday. Cousins threw for 313 yards and two TDs against Buffalo last week. Rams running back Kyren Williams can keep it competitive: he played 71.4% of snaps despite fellow back Blake Corum’s expanded carries. Williams drew six targets and has reached a double-digit target share in five games. I prefer his receiving over to paying -175 for sixty rushing yards. Las Vegas can answer through Bowers and its backs; I’ll take three at -102.

Projected score: Raiders 24, Rams 23.

8:20 p.m.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Best bet: Chiefs +3 (-115) | Stake: 1U
Player prop: Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown (-120) | Stake: 1U

Kansas City running back Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle with 665 rushing yards in five games, including 128 and seven forced missed tackles last week. The Chiefs rank fourth in offensive EPA/play while Seattle ranks 22nd in offensive success rate. Kansas City can feed Walker while quarterback Patrick Mahomes faces a Seahawks defense allowing 4.7 YPA and 157 passing yards per game. Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice is out.

Seattle forced seven punts after Denver’s opening touchdowns last week, and allowed only two first downs thereafter. Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold absorbed five sacks and committed three turnovers, and running back Zach Charbonnet remains out. Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba can win downfield, but his sixteen targets last week did not repair those failed possessions. I expect Walker’s rushing to keep Kansas City within a field goal while the Chiefs attack Darnold’s protection. Walker had eight green-zone touches last week; I’m backing him to score.

Projected score: Chiefs 23, Seahawks 20.