Matthew Stafford detonated his 17th NFL season to the glorious ruin of a league-leading 46 touchdown passes and 4,707 passing yards, with just eight interceptions. He drove Sean McVay’s offense to the top of the league in yards and points. So, yes—give my guy your damn ovation, and your dearest attention tonight. The Rams will celebrate his 2025 MVP season at SoFi Stadium on Monday, with kickoff at 5:15 p.m. locally. Los Angeles climbed to 2–2 by scoring twice in the final eight minutes at Philadelphia; Buffalo arrives at 3–1 after New England exploited their coverage in a 29–26 defeat. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rams vs. Bills prediction, preview
Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes and ran for three more in these teams’ last meeting, a magnificent 44–42 Rams win in Week 14 of 2024. Los Angeles converted ten of eleven third downs through three quarters. A blocked-punt touchdown supplied seven points, although the offenses certainly produced enough mayhem themselves. The Rams held the ball for 38:30 on the game clock, too. Long possessions offered little protection from Josh Allen and the Bills’ bombardment.
Fast forward to 2026, and Keon Coleman just gave Allen another reason to let fly. His six-catch, 116-yard breakout against New England included fourth-quarter third-down receptions of 22 and 24 yards, then the 34-yard touchdown that put Buffalo ahead. Those catches rescued possessions in a game Buffalo could still win. You have to imagine Joe Brady wants to see more of him, right? Especially given the current skill-position snafu in which the Bills find themselves: Joshua Palmer is out and DJ Moore remains questionable with a shoulder injury. Coleman, really, should be in another substantial assignment.
The Rams will meet him head-on with Trent McDuffie, however, who has conceded only five completions on 18 targets through four games. Returning corner Jaylen Watson might catch him on some plays, too, depending on how many snaps Moore runs. Allen’s downfield throws face more resistance here. Joe Brady should work Khalil Shakir inside and restore Dalton Kincaid to the early-down passing game. Shakir supplied seven catches for 82 yards against New England, while Kincaid has fallen from 225 receiving yards in the opening two games to 45 in the past two. Brady has already blamed himself for Kincaid’s scant targets. I’d be calling those throws early and often, especially if Quentin Lake’s hip injury sidelines him. He’s the Rams defensive captain, and he’s the Rams’ own answer to the Emmanwori-hybrid safety, in that Lake would likely be responsible for Kincaid. If he’s not, that’s better for Dalton.
I’d hand James Cook the ball more, too. He ripped off 75 yards on twelve carries against New England, yet Buffalo still faced third-and-five or longer eight times. Cook now meets Kobie Turner, who has finished sixteen run-defense tackles through four games without a miss. Turner fought through Philadelphia’s combination blocks and shut down running lanes last week. Aaron Donald returns from his back injury to challenge Buffalo’s interior protection, where new starter Alec Anderson has struggled to anchor alone.
McVay ought to send Davante Adams after Maxwell Hairston. Adams works predominantly outside, and Hairston just surrendered two touchdown catches to New England. Christian Benford returns to Buffalo’s other outside spot; his presence improves that coverage, although McVay still has a vulnerable corner to attack. Puka Nacua returned from his two-game absence with nine catches for 125 yards at Philadelphia. Kyren Williams has also become a productive underneath target, collecting sixteen catches for 137 yards over the past two games. McVay should send him behind Jim Leonhard’s blitzers and run him at an interior front missing Ed Oliver.
Gregory Rousseau still has a chance to spoil Stafford’s party. The quarterback needed more than fifty throws for 317 yards at Philadelphia and threw two interceptions; shorter passes to Williams and Tyler Higbee revived the offense late. Colby Parkinson returns, and McVay can station him beside a tackle when Rousseau threatens the edge. Drake Maye escaped Buffalo’s pressure last week and punished them on the move. Stafford rarely threatens to scramble, and he has managed a dreadful 29.1 passer rating under pressure through four games. Stafford ought to accept those underneath completions earlier here.
Bills vs. Rams pick, best bet
I expect McVay to leave Stafford out there for most manageable fourth downs in Buffalo territory. Harrison Mevis has missed from 43 and 48 yards this season; in Philadelphia’s rain, McVay chose fourth-and-eight over a 53-yard kick and failed. The Rams have converted just three of six fourth downs through four games. McVay has publicly affirmed his trust in Mevis, while emphasizing his preference for pursuing touchdowns in some situations. Williams’s receiving and Nacua’s presumably-healthier(?) return strengthen that choice. I suppose we don’t know with pre-hernias. Does anyone? No matter—I’d rather put a short conversion in their hands, too, than ask a so-so kicker to convert during primetime. Mevis does have that 61-yard game-winner when he was at the University of Missouri, which, if I remember right, sabotaged a bunch of bettors’ college football Saturday.
Allen’s goal-line running threat and Ray Davis’s return threat against poor Rams kick coverage can still punish McVay’s unit. Still, I prefer Rams -3.5 to under 54.5—which would be my total preference—because Stafford has several credible routes to better scoring against Buffalo’s depleted defense. Brady’s attempts to revive Buffalo’s passing game will likely center around Kincaid/Coleman downfield, which will meet tighter outside coverage than the Bills have seen this season. James Cook must endure Donald’s threat inside. The Rams’ defense is catching a bit of a groove, even though the box score in that Week 4 Eagles game may not suggest it.
Best bet: Rams -3.5 (-105).
Projected score: Rams 30, Bills 24.
