Prior to the start of the season, this was a game circled on many of our calendars because the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills were expected to be two of the best teams in the NFL. The Rams were heavy favorites to win it all at +550, with Buffalo and Baltimore tied for second at +1000.
Well, the Rams lost the opener to San Francisco then dropped another in Denver and now sit at 2-2. Injuries on both sides of the ball have made things challenging.
Buffalo was doing their part, steam rolling to three straight wins until the New England Patriots posted the first L last week. While the offense has been very, very good, the defense has been suspect.
The Rams are still favorites to win the Super Bowl at +650, but there are now three teams at +850 in second (San Francisco, Buffalo and Baltimore).
The rushing attack for Los Angeles has been the heartbeat of the offense so far. Kyren Williams has rushed 54 times for 294 yards and three touchdowns. The 64.8% success rate is the best mark in the NFL. Last season’s MVP, Matthew Stafford, has struggled, completing only 61.1% of his passes while throwing six interceptions. In 17 games last season, Stafford completed 65% of his passes and threw only eight interceptions. Wide receiver Puka Nacua playing only two games is a big reason why.
PFF has the Rams offensive line rated 12th.
The Buffalo rush defense has allowed 4.0 yards per carry, 116 yards per game, 464 yards and three touchdowns. The pass defense? Oh boy, the pass defense. The -41.89 expected points are the fifth-worst while the 10 passing touchdowns allowed are the second-most. The 103.4 passing rating is the seventh-highest. Buffalo is fourth in pressure rate, though, and the 10 sacks are tied for sixth-most.
On offense, Josh Allen and James Cook are the dynamic duo for Buffalo. Allen is 79-of-119 (66.4%) for 1,039 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also rushed 33 times for 118 yards and a league-leading seven touchdowns. Cook has rushed 70 times for 421 yards and three touchdowns while catching six of 10 targets for 24 yards.
The Rams are 19th in pressure rate and the seven sacks are tied for fifth-fewest. Not having Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett are big reasons why. Donald has only played two games and 50% of the snaps. He’s set to return after missing last week, but the snaps likely won’t be more than 50% again. Garrett is week-to-week with no timetable to return.
When and if the defensive line gets healthy, this defense could wreak absolute havoc because the pass defense has been one of the best with a depleted defensive line. The 9.26 expected points are third-best while the 53.5 completion percentage allowed is the second-lowest and the 75.4 passing rating is the third-lowest.
The rush defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 4.0 yards per carry, 102 yards per game, 408 total yards and only one touchdown. The 2.57 expected points are 15th.
The path of least resistance is through the air for Los Angeles, and the Rams have the weapons to go bonkers. If that happens, Josh Allen is going to have to do Josh Allen things, which is normally what he does. The end result could be a back-and-forth, fantasy bonanza type of affair.
DraftKings Sportsbook has LAR -3.5 over BUF with the total at an opulent 54.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (BUF @ LAR)
Bills vs. Rams DraftKings Showdown Captain’s Picks
Puka Nacua ($17,100 CP): Nacua returned from a two-week absence and put up 30.7 FPTS last week. He played 90% of the snaps, garnered 12 targets and caught nine for 125 yards while rushing once for a two-yard touchdown. He is the apple of Stafford’s eye, the object of Stafford’s affection, his passing soulmate, his….Ok, I’ll stop now but I think you get the point. The Bills are vulnerable on the back end of their defense, which Nacua should exploit to his heart’s delight.
Best UTIL Plays for Bills vs. Rams
Josh Allen ($11,800): Points will more than likely be scored in this one, and Allen will probably have a hand in most of those scored for Buffalo. He passes. He runs. He would probably pass to himself, catch, then run if he could. Last week, New England held Allen to 19.5 FPTS, but the Patriots are intimately familiar with him, being a division foe and all. In the prior three games, Allen put up 20.5, 40.8 and 38.7 FPTS.
Tyler Higbee ($4,400): With Terrance Ferguson on IR, Higbee played 65% of the snaps last week, hauling in five of six targets for 67 yards. The Rams offense will likely tilt towards the air, so Higbee should get plenty of opportunities to score fantasy goodies.
Kyren Williams ($9,800): The Rams are implied to score 29 points, the highest mark of the week by a significant margin. And I want a piece of them all. With Nacua in the captain for this lineup, I’d normally want to stack him with Stafford, but Nacua has shown that he can put up big games without catching a touchdown. In addition, Williams has been dominating the snaps, garnering 83% last week, receiving 13 targets and six red zone opportunities. And there should be plenty of those in this one.
Bills vs. Rams DFS Fades
James Cook ($10,600): We were promised more involvement in the passing game for Cook this season, and we were lied to. Cook has 10 targets through four games. The Rams have allowed only one rushing touchdown this season and Allen is always a threat to call his number close to the goal line. Cook is just too expensive for the number of hurdles and hoops he needs to navigate for a score to validate the price tag.
Bills vs. Rams Showdown Game Script
Points should be scored in this one since both offenses are potent and explosive. While Allen is going to score fantasy goodies due to his dual-threat ability, the lack of weapons in the passing game and matchup with a very good Rams secondary could stymie more than a few drives. That’s why I give the edge to the Rams in this one, at home and in primetime.
Final Score: Rams 27, Bills 23
