Fantasy Football Must-Start Players for Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL season is in full swing, and as always, we have a big slate coming up on Sunday with a ton of options for fantasy contests regardless of the format you play. This is the first week that includes a handful of teams on a bye, so keep in mind that the player pool gets just a smidge smaller for now. Still, we have plenty of great choices in the board this weekend.

Whether you’re a returning reader or a newcomer, welcome to my weekly fantasy must-start column. I’ll be here for the entire season to bring you a selection of the players you should want in your fantasy football lineups in season-long and/or DFS formats. These guys are screaming starts for one reason or another – it could be an advantageous matchup, a recent hot streak or a value price in DraftKings contests, among others – so we’re looking to find an edge through the lens of actual analysis. I just want to help you win your week!

Let’s jump in with some must-start players for fantasy football in Week 5.

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Fantasy Football Week 5 Must-Start Players

QB: Jordan Love, Packers vs. Bears ($5,700)

We’ve got a really weird slate here where there are yellow or red flags with many of the top quarterbacks available, namely tough matchups or injuries to key weapons. However, Jordan Love stands out as an option who likely brings a safe floor and could really pop, depending on game script.

Love averages 18.7 FPPG, a respectable mark at this salary in DraftKings DFS. His efficiency has somewhat nosedived to a 56.5% completion rate, but that likely comes as a result of a massive uptick in volume. The Packers have the worst run game in the NFL and a poor defense, which has the gunslinger dropping back 40.5 times per game. The part we really like to see is that he’s tossed two touchdowns in all four games thus far amidst a breakout from wideouts Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, plus the reemergence of Tucker Kraft following the tight end’s recovery from a torn Achilles. Love’s EPA/dropback and YPA are middling, but he’s throwing for 260.2 yards per game and should have to throw the ball plenty on Sunday.

Green Bay hosts the Bears, which could spell trouble after this Chicago offense kept rolling over the last couple of weeks even despite Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum starting at quarterback. With the visitors ninth in offensive EPA/play and points scored this season, they should move the ball against the Packers’ defense and keep Love aggressive if the home team is to keep up.

RB: Chase Brown, Bengals at Dolphins ($6,900)

It feels like there’s a little bit less of an edge at running back this week in DFS as salaries have adjusted a bit. However, if we’re targeting a star who isn’t quite in the upper echelon at the position, Chase Brown could be a great bet for a big game.

The Bengals’ top halfback hasn’t played particularly well this season, to be frank. He’s produced 207 rushing yards across four games, an average of 51.8 per contest, falling to 3.57 YPC and ranking 30th at his position in success rate. His receiving work has helped keep him afloat in fantasy with 5.5 targets per game, fifth most among running backs, pitching in another 25.8 receiving yards per outing. Brown has found the end zone just once so far, which is part of why he’s producing only 14.5 FPPG. However, he comes off the best game of the campaign so far after posting 19.1 DKFP last week against the Jaguars thanks to a ridiculous 11 receptions. Why did he see that kind of target share? It was because both Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) exited that contest early due to injury.

This article was written in advance, so the status of Cincinnati’s star wideouts are worth keeping an eye on since they could swing the upside for Brown considerably. What we do know is that the opposing Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL and rank fifth in FPPG allowed to RBs with 27.0. Their run defense is surprisingly somewhat middling rather than outright bad, but Brown should be positioned for a ton of work since the Bengals are favored by a touchdown. If Chase and/or Higgins play, a blowout that results in increased second-half rushing volume could be in order. If they don’t, then the offense should flow through the backfield given the potential lack of downfield weapons.

WR: Luther Burden III, Bears at Packers ($4,900)

He hasn’t yet lived up to the preseason drumbeat of hype, but Luther Burden III has started to come online recently. It’s a welcome sight for fantasy managers who roster him, but in DFS contests, he’s actually becoming something of a value.

Burden is yet to deliver a truly memorable performance yet this season, but he’s posted double-digit DFKP in three-of-four outings with a ceiling of 19.8 back in Week 3. His average of 12.0 FPPG is solid, especially in light of how odd the Bears’ situation has been so far – Week 1 saw the team’s star pass-catching trio all fail to score a touchdown despite a win with 59 points, Week 2 was a bad-weather game, while Week 3 and 4 saw a different backup quarterback in each. Despite all that, Burden has 19 grabs for 219 yards and one touchdown so far, averaging 54.8 receiving yards per game. He’s 32nd in YPRR among 111 qualifying receivers, but it’s the 22.0% target share that we like. Burden’s seeing 7.3 looks per game with an 0.28 TPRR that comes in at 10th among that same sample size. The role is beginning to look really nice, especially with schemed touches and a rush attempt in three games as an added bonus.

The matchup against Green Bay doesn’t look particularly enticing at first glance since the Packers allow 32.8 FPPG to WRs, 17th in the league. Look a bit deeper and you’ll find that they give up an NFL-high 67.9% target share to the position, which bodes quite well for Burden. Now, couple that with the fact that they have the fourth-lowest explosive pass rate allowed at 4.8%. If they’re taking away the deep ball, that looks better for Burden, too, since he gets lots of layup targets to create yards after the catch. With a backup quarterback under center again, watch for the second-year wideout to see plenty of looks.

TE: Trey McBride, Cardinals vs. Lions ($6,700)

This is a DFS-centric pick since Trey McBride will certainly be in lineups across every season-long league. Still, this is a spot in which the tight end looks like he might be an essential piece when constructing lineups. He’s worth paying up for this week.

We know how talented the Cardinals’ top target is. His 17.3 FPPG rank second at the position behind only Brock Bowers, and despite a quiet Week 4, he’s still produced double-digit points in all four games. That’s due to his own ability, yes, but also the target volume he sees as the most important cog in this attack. McBride has 10+ targets in every game with an average of 10.8 per contest, good for a 28.3% target share that ranks sixth among all NFL pass-catchers, not just tight ends. At his position, though, his 1.78 YPRR are good for 13th and he’s fifth in receiving yards per game with 60.5. He also has two touchdowns, a total he could easily add to this week given the matchup.

No NFL defense has been worse against tight ends than the Lions, who are on the road in Arizona. They’re giving up 28.4 FPPG to the position – the next-worst team is the Chiefs with 22.6 FPPG allowed. Detroit has coughed up a league-high six touchdowns while allowing a 30.9% target share to TEs. The Cardinals aren’t a good team and their defense should be totally outmatched against this opposing offense, so that likely means a ton of dropbacks for Jacoby Brissett. That formula has helped turn McBride into a superstar, so he should perform as such in a dream spot.