We already know that the Rays will represent one side of the ALCS. Will we find out their matchup on Thursday night? It’s unclear, though a well-timed home run might be the difference in either the Guardians or the White Sox coming out on top.
Here are my two home runs picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook for this massive Game 4: Miguel Vargas and Jo Adell.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | +444 | The Guardians will be relying on a lot of lefties tonight. Vargas led the White Sox with a .563 expected slugging percentage versus LHPs during the regular season. In fact, among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances within the split, that was the seventh-highest figure in all of baseball. The 26-year-old hasn’t hit well so far in the postseason, but 33 home runs and a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.378) aren’t a fluke. |
| Jo Adell | +507 | The White Sox will likely also be using multiple LHPs. Adell’s mashed 60 long balls since the beginning of 2025. Specific to 2026, the outfielder slashed .320/.372/.599 versus left-handers, with a .596 expected slugging percentage within the split — the second-highest mark in MLB. It’s impossible to know exactly how Chicago’s pitching will shake out, but I’ll take my chances with Adell’s raw power. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Miguel Vargas 1+ Home Run (+444)
Not a lot of explanation needed here. The Guardians are starting the left-handed Parker Messick in an elimination game. That means that, more than likely, the only relievers we’ll see following the Rookie of the Year hopeful are Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski and Tim Herrin — two of which are also left-handed. That’s a whole lot of southpaws. So, it’s worth knowing that Vargas led the White Sox with a .563 expected slugging percentage versus LHPs during the regular season. In fact, among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances within the split, that was the seventh-highest figure in all of baseball. The 26-year-old hasn’t hit well so far in the postseason, but 33 home runs and a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.378) aren’t a fluke. I’ll trust the larger sample and back Vargas in this market.
Jo Adell 1+ Home Run (+507)
I just mentioned the list of qualified players with the best expected slugging percentages against lefties. Vargas was seventh. You know who is a few spots ahead of him with the second-highest rate in MLB? You guessed it. It’s Jo Adell (.596). No one has ever questioned the former first-round pick’s raw power potential, and Adell’s mashed 60 long balls since the beginning of 2025. Specific to 2026, the outfielder slashed .320/.372/.599 versus LHPs, which equates out to a .279 ISO and a 168 wRC+. Adell also boasts a 49.6% hard hit rate within the split. It’s almost impossible to know how Chicago’s pitching will shake out in Game 4, but we can confirm that Hagen Smith will start. That’s one lefty. I’d be shocked if we don’t see Bryan Hudson and Anthony Kay at some point, as well. That should give Adell at least a couple cracks in his preferred handedness matchup.
