Three teams have already punched their tickets to the League Championship Series. Just one more spot remains.
On Wednesday, the Cleveland Guardians kept their season alive with a 9-3 win over the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field, as their bats suddenly lit up and Munetaka Murakami’s went cold. They still face an uphill battle to book a date with the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS, but nothing is guaranteed in baseball.
Cleveland is a -115 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook with ace Parker Messick set to take the mound, but Hagen Smith and the White Sox (-105) shouldn’t be counted out.
Below, I’ll break down my favorite prop bets from tonight’s potential elimination game, focusing on one player from each team.
Guardians at White Sox Best Prop Bets Tonight for Thursday 10/8/26
Steven Kwan 2+ Total Bases (+160)
Kwan has had an awful series so far, going just two-for-13 (.154) with a single in each of Games 2 and 3, but I’m not going to let a three-game sample size overshadow a fantastic second half of the season. Between the start of July and the end of the regular season, Kwan was one of the hottest hitters in baseball, slashing .352/.445/.441 and recording at least two total bases in 33 of his 73 games (+121 implied odds). Although he hasn’t been seeing the ball super well this series, his xBA is 79 points higher than his actual mark, so he’s gotten pretty unlucky.
Chicago has had a pretty inconsistent pitching staff. Although five White Sox relievers combined to allow just three hits in Game 1, including 2.2 hitless innings from Smith, Chicago ranked just 15th in ERA for the season as a whole, the worst among the eight teams to advance to the Division Series. The White Sox also have the most taxed bullpen these playoffs, as their relievers have combined for 33.0 innings, 3.2 more than any other team and 14.0 fewer than any other team with five or fewer games played. Kwan had a 1.005 OPS in six games played at Rate Field during the regular season.
Miguel Vargas 1+ Runs + RBI’s (-103)
Of Chicago’s infield power bats, Vargas has been the best this series. Although Murakami hit a go-ahead homer in Game 1 to help chase Messick from the game and Chase Meidroth came through with a run in Game 3, Vargas has had a team-best .990 OPS. He’s also recorded a .615 OBP, the best among any Division Series participant with multiple plate appearances, scoring or driving in a run in two of the three games. He ranked second in the AL in runs scored during the regular season and eighth in RBI’s, accounting for either a run scored or driven in in 89 of his 159 games.
Of course, Messick could make it difficult, as he ranked third in the AL in ERA and in the 85th percentile in xERA. However, Vargas was a lefty masher during the regular season, punishing southpaws to the tune of a .927 OPS, and he had an .887 mark at home. The Cuban also had a .589 xSLG against left-handed four-seamers, which Messick likes to throw to righties. Counting Game 1, Vargas has either scored or driven in a run in three of the five games in which Messick has pitched, and he accounted for 10 runs and 10 RBI’s in 13 regular-season games against the Guardians overall.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets: Home Run Props for Guardians vs. White Sox ALDS Game 4
- Guardians vs. White Sox MLB DFS Picks and Showdown Strategy for ALDS Game 4
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