While the Rays advanced to the ALCS last night, their opponents still have yet to be decided. The Guardians delivered a season-saving 9-3 win last night on the road. Still, it’s the underdog White Sox that hold a 2-1 advantage in this best of five series. Can Chicago finish things off at home, or will Cleveland force a do-or-die Game 5?
The Guardians are favorites (-120) over the White Sox; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s ALDS showdown between Cleveland and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- Guardians ML (-120): Cleveland hasn’t performed up to expectations in this series, but Game 4 presents an opportunity to turn things around. Messick, despite a mediocre Game 1 performance, remains one of the AL’s top arms. In comparison, the White Sox are turning to another bullpen game. That alone gives the visiting Guardians an edge in this matchup.
Guardians vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Parker Messick gets the nod tonight, looking to rebound from a mediocre showing in Game 1. The White Sox notched two runs in just 4.1 innings against Cleveland’s ace. Still, one blip on the radar isn’t enough to lose complete confidence in the left-hander. During 186.1 innings pitched this season (32 starts), he’s recorded a 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 193 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). The rookie ranks within the 80th percentile or better in xERA (3.15), walk rate (6.6%), barrel rate (5.0%) and hard-hit rate (34.3%). It’s worth noting that Messick has performed even better on the road (2.22 ERA).
Getting to a legitimate ace twice in the span of four games is a difficult challenge for any team. With that being said, this White Sox lineup has enough talent to get the job done. During the regular season, this crew ranked fifth in runs scored (776), fifth in home runs (211) and eighth in slugging percentage (.406). With that being said, the South Siders tend to perform better against left-handed pitching. When facing righties at home, the team only ranks 18th in OPS (.732). Messick has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his six career meetings with Chicago.
Hagen Smith is on the bump for the White Sox, likely serving as an opener. Despite lacking big-game experience, Chicago fans should feel alright about the 23-year-old’s chances tonight. Through 28.0 innings during the regular season, he posted a stellar 1.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 41 strikeouts (13.2 K/9). That’s carried over into the playoffs, where Smith has allowed one earned run over 6.1 innings pitched. Sox manager Will Venable has had plenty of success with relievers in October. As a unit, this bullpen owns a respectable 3.27 ERA this postseason.
After getting shut down in Games 1 and 2, the Guardians came out firing yesterday. A much-needed nine-run outburst was led by none other than Jose Ramirez, still among the game’s best hitters. The third baseman went two-for-four at the plate, notching a double, triple and two RBIs. Although this offense doesn’t excel at much, it is a patient group of hitters. Cleveland is averaging 3.59 walks per game, seventh-most in the majors. In comparison, White Sox pitching has handed out the 11th-most base on balls in the league. For what it’s worth, the Guards average slightly more runs per game on the road (4.27) than at home (4.10).
Best Bet: Guardians ML (-120)
Sometimes, it makes sense to simplify a bet. Messick is the best pitcher on the mound tonight, tilting today’s game in Cleveland’s favor. Granted, the White Sox have shown they can do a bit of damage in this spot. Still, doing that twice in one series might be wishful thinking. After getting it going at the plate last night, the Guardians should be able to support their starter with a few runs this evening as well. In a do-or-die spot, advantage goes towards the more experienced visitors.
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