This season, Swift ($6,200) has been the Bears’ lead back with Monangai ($5,200) playing a secondary role behind him, but these two swapped roles in this past Sunday’s win over the Jets.
Monanagi was unstoppable, rushing 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns (31 FPTS) while Swift rushed 15 times for 58 yards (8.4). Swift had two touchdowns called back, so his fantasy score could have been much better, but the veteran lost a fumble early in the third quarter and didn’t see a carry afterward. This subsequently led to the Bears featuring Monangai.
Monanagi handled 61.2% of the running back carries and logged 53.8% of the snaps while Swift saw a 30% rush rate on a 35.5% snap rate. In the first three games of the season, Swift led way with a 64.3% rush share and 64.7% snap share while Monangai saw a 35.7% rush share on a 35.7% snap rate.
Swift was dealing with a knee injury leading up to last Sunday’s matchup vs. the Jets and missed practice Wednesday, but when asked if the injury was a factor in Swift seeing less work, HC Ben Johnson said “no, nothing like that”.
Swift’s fumble on Sunday was his second in just four games this season after he finished with two fumbles a year ago. Meanwhile, Monangai hasn’t coughed the ball up once in the last two seasons.
Johnson clearly wanted to send a message to Swift that he needs to protect the ball better and that this backfield has another great option in Monangai who they can easily turn to. While Swift has been effective this season, Monangai has been even better.
Swift is averaging 4.5 YPC while Monangai is averaging 5.4 YPC, which ranks fifth among the backs who have seen 10+ carries. Swift has forced 12 missed tackles while Monangai has forced nine, but Monangai has seven rushes of 10+ yards, compared to five for Swift. Overall in rushing success rate, Monangai and Swift rank 22nd and 34th, respectively.
Given Swift’s fumble issues and that Monangai has been the better rusher, who should be viewed as the Bears’ RB1 heading into their Week 5 matchup vs. the Packers?
Bears’ Backfield Week 5 Outlook
Monangai took full advantage of Swift getting benched this past week and Monangai certainly earned himself more work going forward, but that doesn’t mean this is now his backfield. Swift was the clear top dog to open the season and it’s hard to imagine he just all the sudden plays a much smaller role.
Swift and Monangai should see close to the same amount of carries this Sunday vs. the Packers, barring one of them fumbles. However, while the ground work should be a near even split, Swift should continue to be the primary pass catching back. Despite getting benched last week, Swift still clearly holds an edge in this department, seeing 12 targets on 56 routes this season, compared to five targets on 39 routes for Monangai.
Given his larger role as a receiver, Swift should end up leading the way in touches, making him the stronger play for fantasy. That being said, both Swift and Monangai are attractive plays in this matchup vs. Green Bay, as Chicago is in a position to rely on its run game once again.
Caleb Williams (hamstring) will remain out. With him sidelined for the last two, the Bears rank second in rush rate (55.1%). This is also a great matchup to attack on the ground, as the Packers are allowing the fourth-highest rush success rate in the NFL and they are giving up the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs (seven).
Both Swift and Monangai could have strong performances in this spot, and both are compelling starts for Week 5. For DFS on DraftKings, both backs have merit at their price tags, but Swift has more appeal, as he should come with much less ownership after last week.
