Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears prediction, pick for NFL Week 5 on Sunday 10/11/26

Ben Johnson has won with three different quarterbacks, and we’re four games into the season. Analysts who resist hyperbole are bandying about the term “genius” when it comes to this coaching overhaul’s effect on the entire Chicago Bears’ organization, franchise, spirit, etc. They now head to Lambeau at 3-1, with Tyson Bagent starting again while Caleb Williams nurses his hamstring. Green Bay scraped past Tampa Bay to reach 2-2, but Matt LaFleur finally saw his reshuffled offensive line protect Jordan Love, and that’s at least some positive momentum for a team whose roster keeps hemorraghing its best talent. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Packers vs. Bears prediction, preview

Bagent did much more than supervise Sunday’s 23-12 win over the Jets. He completed 25 of 34 throws for 268 yards, averaging a healthy 7.9 yards per attempt, and found Rome Odunze up the seam on a big third down. Johnson still wants better placement, to be sure: Bagent threw behind Colston Loveland across the middle and Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted him. Jonathan Gannon can hurry Bagent with his safeties; Evan Williams sacked Jalon Daniels and pressured his final fourth-down throw.

Gannon has lost Edgerrin Cooper to a ruptured Achilles, though, and Micah Parsons still won’t practice this week. Johnson should keep running at the replacement linebackers. Kyle Monangai battered the Jets for 146 yards on 30 carries, but hurt his thumb and remains day-to-day. If he can handle another substantial workload, Chicago can run on early downs, draw those linebackers toward the line, and throw behind them to Loveland, Burden, Odunze—whoever. All these guys get open over the top.

That’s how the Bears could send this game over. They never punted Sunday, yet scored touchdowns on just two of seven red-zone visits. Across their last three games, they’ve finished only four of 15 visits with touchdowns; Johnson blamed sloppy details Sunday after penalties and negative runs spoiled the previous week. I expect improvement against Green Bay’s replacements, but Chicago still has to execute in tighter quarters, and I assume they will here. I still expect their possessions to be long, if not as long as they were against the Jets; this should leave Love fewer chances to answer.

Bears vs. Packers pick, best bet

Love has earned a more hopeful forecast than his miserable first month suggested. With Laken Tomlinson and Travis Glover at guard, he took no sacks Sunday. LaFleur used three tight ends more often, and Love completed all five throws from that grouping for 76 yards. Tucker Kraft’s quick catches can punish Dennis Allen’s blitzes. But Allen also rushes four and squeezes throwing lanes with changing coverages; Chicago has allowed only two touchdowns over their last three games. Green Bay converted just two of 10 third downs at Tampa Bay, where takeaways supplied 10 of their 17 points. They also turned the ball over twice inside Tampa Bay’s 20. Their middling and rotating backfield still needs to spare Love long-yardage throws: two runs supplied 58 of Green Bay’s 86 rushing yards. I’d imagine less explosiveness, more consistency in this one.

I expect Love to move the ball through Kraft, then struggle to sustain some of those drives. Cairo Santos and Trey Smack can salvage stalled possessions, but it’s important to note that I think we’re discovering Jordan Love is not a quarterback who can elevate a roster this depleted. He can simply help it weather the storm. That doesn’t mean lots of scoring. And with Chicago consuming so much game clock and both offenses still wasting scoring chances, I put this nearer 43 points.

I would not be surprised, if the Bears win on the road as I think they do, if this is the final game Matt LaFleur is the head coach of the Packers.

Best bet: Under 45.5 (-112).

Projected score: Bears 23, Packers 20.

Best Bet: Packers vs. Bears u45.5 total points scored (-110)