We’ve got two all-important Game 3’s on the MLB slate this evening, with the action getting underway in Atlanta just past 6:00 p.m. ET.
Here are my two home runs picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook for these NLDS tilts: Drake Baldwin and Jackson Chourio.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | +620 | The sophomore backstop continues to blossom into a superstar, though he’s yet to have his “moment” in the postseason. During the regular season, Baldwin registered a 96th percentile expected slugging rate (.505) and a 93rd percentile hard hit rate (50.6%). He’s clearly not short on power potential, and these metrics translated into a career-high 25 long balls — one of which came off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a 1-0 Braves win in late August. |
| Jackson Chourio | +413 | Nick Pivetta has struggled with the long ball throughout his career, surrendering 1.44 opponent home runs per nine. It’s probably connected to the fact that Pivetta’s 48.5% fly ball rate is the second-highest qualified mark over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, Chourio is red-hot at the plate. Over the final two months of the regular season, Chourio slashed .319/.385/.531 with a .213 ISO and a 50.3% hard hit rate. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Drake Baldwin 1+ Home Run (+620)
If you’re going to bet on a home run in the contest between the Braves and the Dodgers, I think you almost have to pick an Atlanta bat. That’s obviously not a knock on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but rather an endorsement of Chris Sale, who has conceded the fewest opponent home runs per nine of any qualified pitcher dating back to the beginning of 2024 (0.58). My choice? How about Drake Baldwin? The sophomore backstop continues to blossom into a superstar, though he’s yet to have his “moment” in the postseason. During the regular season, Baldwin registered a 96th percentile expected slugging rate (.505) and a 93rd percentile hard hit rate (50.6%). He’s clearly not short on power potential, and these metrics translated into a career-high 25 long balls — one of which came off Yamamoto in a 1-0 Braves win in late August.
Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run (+413)
Here’s a couple things you need to know about Nick Pivetta, who will be starting Game 3 for the Padres. First and foremost, the right-hander has struggled with the long ball throughout his career, surrendering 1.44 opponent home runs per nine. It’s also worth noting that Pivetta’s 48.5% fly ball rate is the second-highest qualified mark over the past three seasons — trailing only Bailey Ober — and that the veteran has also given up a double-digit opponent barrel rate in all three of those years. That is a formula for success in this betting market. Granted, the Brewers don’t possess a ton of power in their lineup, as the club finished dead-last in the NL in home runs (154). If there is one man to fear in that department, it’s the red-hot Chourio. Over the final two months of the regular season, Chourio slashed .319/.385/.531 with a .213 ISO and a 50.3% hard hit rate. The former top prospect might finally be making the jump to the next level.
