Last season, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears renewed their decades-long rivalry, matching up in the postseason for the first time since 2011, and all three games were competitive, setting up plenty of excitement ahead of Sunday’s Week 5 contest in Green Bay. Both teams entered the season expecting to be good, with rising stars at quarterback in Jordan Love and Caleb Williams and solid defenses and run games to boot.
However, Williams is set to miss his third straight game after suffering a hamstring strain in Week 2. Love is healthy for the Packers, but he hasn’t been good, and Green Bay has gotten pretty lucky to be 2-2.
Love is still rostered in 73% of Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues, but managers are souring on him, as he’s only a starter in 30% of them. It’s still early enough for him to turn his season around, but it’s also possible that his struggles will continue.
Results and Usage
Love has taken a step back pretty much across the board to open the 2026 campaign. He’s completed only 56.5% of his passes, a dip of nearly 10 percentage points from his mark last season and the third-worst accuracy among qualified starters. Love has also recorded his lowest touchdown percentage, passer rating, QBR, success rate, fewest yards and adjusted net yards per attempt while taking sacks at a career-high clip. Green Bay’s two wins have come against teams with a combined 1-7 record, and its two defeats have come in blowout fashion.
Love’s advanced numbers are as ugly as his surface-level ones. He’s posted the sixth-worst Pro Football Focus offensive grades among 38 qualified quarterbacks after finishing fourth in that stat last season, and his negative-6.9 completion percentage over expectation is better than only three players who would be backups or even third-stringers if every quarterback was healthy (Cooper Rush, Carson Wentz, and Athan Kaliakmanis). Love has made bad throws at the third-highest rate, and been on target at merely an average clip. The Packers can’t bench him — Tyrod Taylor wouldn’t be an upgrade — but he hasn’t remotely looked like a franchise quarterback.
Future Outlook
Injuries and off-the-field issues have played a major role in the Packers’ mediocrity. Running back Josh Jacobs, who managed 1,211 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns last season to help diversify the offense, was arrested before the season started on domestic violence charges and has been on the commissioner’s exempt list all season. In his absence, Chris Brooks, Kaleb Johnson, and MarShawn Lloyd have done next to nothing, and Green Bay has the league’s worst rushing attack as a whole. Although the Packers’ running back woes aren’t Love’s fault, they’re unlikely to improve any time soon; it’s unclear when Jacobs’ punishment may be meted out. Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele’s season-ending patellar tendon tear won’t help either, as Bako-Bewele was the team’s best pass-blocker last season. Neither will wideout Jayden Reed’s season-ending neck injury.
Green Bay has completely turned away from the run, attempting the fewest rushes and the seventh-most passes in the league, which could theoretically help Love stay fantasy-viable, but he’s only been the 14th-most productive fantasy quarterback this season despite all of his opportunity. He’s never been much of a threat with his legs, but he produced 50 carries for 247 yards in 2023 and 47 for 199 last season, which has dropped to six carries and negative-eight yards so far. Without any mobility or a talented running back to dump it off to, Love has posted the league’s worst offensive grades while under pressure.
Love isn’t worth starting, especially against a Chicago defense that has locked in since allowing 37 points in Week 1, as the Bears have limited opposing passers to the 12th-fewest FPTS per game. They blitz at the second-highest rate, leading the league in hurry percentage and ranking second in pressure rate, which will force Love to make mistakes. They’ve also allowed just four passing touchdowns, tied for the third-fewest in football, and they rank second in Expected Points Added on passing plays and ninth by PFF’s coverage grades. Rookies Dillon Thieneman and Malik Muhammad have both gotten their rookie seasons off to fantastic starts, and both Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson have shown a high level in the past even though they haven’t been great this season.
