Devaughn Vele receptions pick for Saints vs. Falcons

The final game of Week 4 kicks off in the Big Easy with a rivalry matchup on Monday Night Football. The New Orleans Saints’ passing attack gets a date against the Atlanta Falcons, potentially setting up Devaughn Vele for a big game. Amidst a recent breakout, what should we expect for the wide receiver tonight?

Here’s the best Devaughn Vele receptions pick for Saints vs. Falcons on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Best Devaughn Vele receptions pick for Saints vs. Falcons

Devaughn Vele is no star, but he’s posted some quality numbers over the first few weeks of the season. The 28-year-old is in his second season with the Saints and and is quietly enjoying something of a breakout. He’s tallied 15 receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown through three games – roughly halfway to matching his previous career-high marks of 25 catches, 293 yards and two scores.

The reason for Vele’s success is the level of involvement he’s seen thus far. He’s currently running 89.8% of his team’s routes, way higher than previous route shares of 53.% or below. He’s already run 132 routes in a pass-happy offense and his 44 routes per game currently lead all wide receivers. He’s also commanding the football, too. Vele has 22 targets, an average of 7.3 per game that ranks 19th among 111 qualified wide receivers.

In his three games thus far, Vele has seen varying levels of success. In Week 1, he hauled in seven-of-nine targets for 69 yards and a touchdown against the Lions. Then, he followed it up with five grabs on seven targets for 64 yards on the road against the Ravens. Last week was his lowest output of the year, but Vele finished with three receptions for 39 yards on six looks. Will he bounce back here on Monday Night Football?

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Vele’s player prop bet lines are set at O/U 3.5 receptions, 43.5 receiving yards and a longest catch of 19.5 yards. He holds +235 odds for an anytime touchdown. The Saints are also a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 47.5 combined points.

This should be another pass-happy game for New Orleans. Halfback Travis Etienne is on IR, meaning an aging Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are the primary backfield threats. They aren’t likely to get much going on the ground – here’s an excerpt on why:

The opposing Falcons have one of the best run defenses in football. Through three games, Atlanta leads the NFL in EPA/rush and rushing success rate allowed. Beyond that, the Falcons allow the second-lowest YPC to running backs at just 3.13 and they’re yet to give up a touchdown on the ground to the position.

It’s very difficult to attack this defense on the ground, but that fits the Saints’ game plan. They rank first in the NFL in offensive pace and are seventh in PROE at 4.6%, and beyond that, Tyler Shough leads all quarterbacks with a whopping 49.0 dropbacks per game. The Falcons are still missing star cornerback A.J. Terrell on IR, so they’re a bit more vulnerable to the aerial attack at the moment than usual. That’s something New Orleans should take advantage of.

In a matchup that should be competitive with plenty of passing, I like Vele to record 5+ receptions tonight. He’s seen reliable volume in terms of targets each week and has the second-highest first-read target share among Saints pass-catchers at 20.4%, so with his team set to air it out, he can get to this mark on Monday Night Football.

Best Bet: Devaughn Vele 5+ receptions (+140)

Click the odds of this bet to tail!