Fantasy Football Must-Start Players for Week 4

We’re onto Week 4 of the NFL campaign, and as always, we have a big slate coming up on Sunday with a ton of options for fantasy contests regardless of the format you play. The league landscape is beginning to settle and we have an idea of who’s who after three weeks of action, so finding the key pieces for lineups gets just a smidge easier with the data we’re working with.

Whether you’re a returning reader or a newcomer, welcome to my weekly fantasy must-start column. I’ll be here for the entire season to bring you a selection of the players you should want in your fantasy football lineups in season-long and/or DFS formats. These guys are screaming starts for one reason or another – it could be an advantageous matchup, a recent hot streak or a value price in DraftKings contests, among others – so we’re looking to find an edge through the lens of actual analysis. I just want to help you win your week!

Let’s jump in with some must-start players for fantasy football in Week 4.

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Fantasy Football Week 4 Must-Start Players

QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Bengals ($5,900)

I wrote up Tyler Shough in each of the last two weeks, but now that he’s in for Monday Night Football, we’re looking elsewhere. In the middle range of the lineup builder’s salaries is Trevor Lawrence, who I think stands out in Week 4.

The Jaguars’ star quarterback averages 18.0 FPPG through his first three games, having posted 26.1, 7.2 and 20.8 DKFP to start the season. He’s looked MVP-caliber at times, especially in Week 1 when he torched the Browns for 245 yards and four touchdown passes on just 23 pass attempts. Overall, we’re looking at 616 passing yards, seven scores, two interceptions and an additional 34 rushing yards from the gunslinger. His rushing upside has been limited thus far – and it was frustrating to see him take a knee at the one-yard line last week – but he’s still looked very sharp even without the touchdowns on the ground that he was scoring last season. He’s completing 66.7% of his throws and ranks seventh in EPA/dropback as well as 10th in yards per attempt.

His matchup in Week 4 isn’t a bad one by any means. The Bengals are 14th in FPPG allowed to QBs (18.4) and the game carries a total of 51.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook, tied for the highest total on the Sunday slate. One additional note is that they’ve given up the third-most fantasy points from quarterback scrambles. Since the Cincinnati front seven looks really solid, it makes sense to project Jacksonville to attack through the air and let Lawrence cook.

RB: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers vs. Packers ($6,000)

Ignore how ugly the Buccaneers vs. Packers game might look for a second. We have a backup quarterback in play for Tampa Bay, meaning the team may lean on the run against a defense that’s allowed more FPPG to running backs than any other.

Enter Bucky Irving. The Bucs’ halfback averages 14.0 FPPG on the year and has seen his production decline each week, ticking down from 21.3 to 13.0 before 7.8 DKFP last week. However, that isn’t a reason to avoid him. His workload has ticked upward for the most part, seeing at least 15 carries and four targets in each of the last two games. Irving is operating as a clear lead option in this offense and running at a clip of 4.5 YPC with 60.0 rushing yards per game. He has 241 scrimmage yards on the year with 13 catches, so even if he doesn’t get into the end zone, his workload should be enough to produce a very solid day in fantasy lineups.

As mentioned above, Tampa Bay turns to backup quarterback Jalon Daniels, which could mean extra work for Irving as the team looks to insulate the rookie UDFA. The Bucs are at home against Green Bay, a defense that’s giving up an NFL-high 30.7 FPPG to RBs so far this season and the seventh-highest point-per-touch mark (0.95). The matchup is a nice one, even with the quarterback situation clouding the picture slightly.

WR: Tee Higgins, Bengals vs. Jaguars ($6,100)

After a couple of strong outings in back-to-back weeks, there’s reason to believe that it might be Tee Higgins week once again. If we like Trevor Lawrence and the overall game environment for Cincy and Jacksonville, why not take another piece of that puzzle?

Higgins typically plays second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase, which is perfectly reasonable since the latter is a top-five wideout in the NFL at absolute worst. There’s room for both to eat, though. Higgins averages 14.8 FPPG and comes off six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown last week, which followed up five grabs for 95 yards on 10 targets in the prior game. He’s seen at least six targets in all three of his appearances, averaging 7.7 per game – 15th at his position. Higgins has been very efficient with those chances, averaging 2.62 YPRR (12th) with 81.3 YPG (eighth). His aDOT of 12.91 isn’t anything ridiculously high, but he’s stretching routes into intermediate and deeper areas of the field. That matters this week in particular.

The Jaguars aren’t an easy matchup, but they’re also not a very difficult one. They rank 17th in FPPG allowed to WRs, which is largely dragged down by a lack of touchdowns since they’ve only given up one to the position. They’re fourth in EPA/pass allowed but also 17th in pass success rate, but what we particularly like is the explosive rate they’ve given up. Jacksonville ranks dead last with a 15.5% explosive rate on opposing passes, which is what Higgins can take advantage of.

TE: Michael Mayer, Raiders vs. Chiefs ($3,400)

Finally, who else would we start at tight end position than a Raider? You thought I meant Brock Bowers? Nope, think again. He’s worth paying up for in DFS, but there’s some hidden upside with Michael Mayer.

If you’re asking why we’d ever play the second tight end on the depth chart, there’s context that might put your mind at ease. Bowers ran 34.3% of his routes from out wide and 42.9% from in the slot in his season debut last week, which was his first game under new head coach Klint Kubiak. Just 20.0% of his routes came as an inline tight end. Michael Mayer, however, still saw 28 routes – a 75.7% share that ranked ninth at the position – with the vast majority coming as the inline option. He scored 12.2 DKFP with three grabs for 32 yards and a touchdown, a modest-but-solid day for the former Notre Dame standout.

Mayer is averaging just 8.9 FPPG, but he has some sneaky appeal since most people will likely ignore him in contests outright with Bowers back in the picture. At this low salary, I like taking the swing if you’re going cheap at tight end. The Chiefs’ defense is quite good, but also ranks 14th in FPPG allowed to TEs (14.1) and this game should see a pass-happy script for Las Vegas at home as a 4.5-point underdog that’s clearly more outmatched on the field than on the spread.