After an exciting set of Wild Card series earlier this week, Major League Baseball continues the postseason on Saturday with four Game 1 matchups in the Division Series. The Guardians, Dodgers, Rays and Brewers are back in action after their byes to face the White Sox, Braves, Yankees and Padres. With four matchups spread throughout this Saturday, it’s a glorious day of playoff action, and one way to get in on the action is by picking out a few home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook. Looking at the matchups and the odds on the board, my top three home run props for this Saturday are from Kyle Tucker, Cedric Mullins, and Jackson Chourio
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | Dodgers | Tucker has solid playoff history and hit five of his 17 HR this year in the final 17 games of the regular season, going 20-for-60 (.333) with a 13.0% barrel rate, .449 wOBA and .333 ISO. |
| Cedric Mullins | Rays | Mullins has 2 HR in his career against Gerrit Cole, including one last time they met. He hit safely in six straight starts and also has playoff history. |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | Chourio crushed lefties and hit well at home this year and has a favorable matchup vs. Robbie Ray. Over the last 17 games of the season, he hit .364 with four HR. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+448)
The Braves are going to have to patch together their Game 1 pitching with JR Ritchie as one of the key inning options. They’ll face a tough Dodgers lineup in L.A., where the Dodgers have the advantage of giving the ball to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ritchie went 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA this season and gave up 13 homers in 17 games (11 starts), and lefties had a .367 wOBA and 11.1% barrel rate against him.
The Dodgers didn’t face Ritchie this season, but they have plenty of proven playoff power production from the left side of the plate. One new addition to their lineup this postseason is lefty Kyle Tucker, who was a disappointment as a whole this season but finished the year with some positive home run momentum. Tucker hit five of his 17 homers this year in the final 17 games of the regular season, going 20-for-60 (.333) with a 13.0% barrel rate, .449 wOBA and .333 ISO.
Tucker has played 72 postseason games in his career, mostly with the Astros and a few with the Cubs last year. He has nine home runs in those games while hitting .233 with 29 RBI.
He will be looking to redeem his disappointing season with a big postseason run, and he definitely has the raw talent to make that happen. He has found his stride over the last few weeks, and if that continues, he can start Game 1 with a home run to help the Dodgers start their quest for a third straight World Series title with a blast on Saturday.
Cedric Mullins to Hit a Home Run (+710)
The Rays welcome the Yankees to the Trop in an AL East Division Series. These two teams have seemed to be on a collision course most of the year, and the Rays took the season series 7-6. After using Cam Schlittler and Max Fried against the Red Sox, the Yankees will give the ball to Gerrit Cole to start the ALDS.
Cole has allowed nine homers in his last four games, giving up multiple runs in each of those four outings with a 5.09 ERA and 6.75 FIP. On the year, he allowed 22 homers in his 22 starts, including 15 to left-handed hitters.
Mullins is a long-shot lefty that makes sense as a value option this Saturday. He comes at long odds at over 7:1, but he has some solid momentum and a good history against Cole. Mullins is 12-for-38 (.316) in his past meetings with Cole, including a pair of home runs.
The 32-year-old veteran had 15 homers in his first season with the Rays, hitting .205 with a .281 wOBA. He picked up a hit in each of his last six starts, including this homer last week against Cole and the Yankees:
Mullins had better power numbers at home and hit 14 of his 15 homers against righties, so he’ll be on the strong side of his splits in his rematch against Cole. He does also have some playoff experience, and homered in the Wild Card series with the Orioles in 2024 while going 3-for-7 with a double as well.
Getting him at such long odds is a great longshot value play for Saturday’s Game 1.
Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+485)
Let’s close out the day of home run props with a play from American Family Field, where the Brewers host the Padres. Since picking against Jacob Misiorowski seems a little crazy, I’m taking Chourio on the home team’s side of the matchup as he faces veteran lefty Robbie Ray.
Chourio hit nine of his 25 homers this season against lefties, leading the team in homers in that split. He hit an impressive .333 against southpaws on the year, with a .413 wOBA, a .242 ISO, and a 12.7% barrel rate.
He also hit most of his home runs (15) at home, where he had a .313 batting average and ..402 wOBA. He had three hits in his last game of the regular season and finished with a .291 average overall. Over the last 17 games of the season, he hit .364 with four homers, including this clutch smash against the Cubs.
Chourio has hit .341 (15-for-44) in his 12 postseason games in his career with four homers. Since he’s on the strong side of his splits this Saturday, he should be set to start the Brew Crew’s postseason run this year with a blast. His home run props are almost 5:1, so he’s still a solid value pick even though he’s not as much of a longshot as Mullins.
