It’s only fitting that the American League’s two best teams will meet in the playoffs. The Yankees and Rays battled it out for an AL East title all season, with the latter coming out on top by 4.5 games. New York, fresh off of a dominant Wild Card Round vs. Boston, now gets a chance to exact some revenge on another division rival. Still, getting a Game 1 win won’t be easy at Tropicana Field. Which side has the edge tonight in this must-watch matchup?
The Rays are favorites (-135) over the Yankees; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s ALDS showdown between New York and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Rays pick, best bet today
- Rays ML (-135): Cole might hold his own tonight, but it may not be enough. Rasmussen has had New York’s number over the past few years, and that was true with Judge in the lineup. On the road against an outstanding arm, this is a tough spot for the Yankees.
Yankees vs. Rays prediction, preview
Gerrit Cole gets the start for New York, a move that may have raised some eyebrows. The righty has looked a bit off in recent weeks, posting a 5.08 ERA over his previous five starts. His biggest issue has been the long ball; Cole has a sky-high 2.9 HR/9 ERA during that stretch. Still, this is a spot the veteran has performed well in before. Over three meetings with Tampa Bay this season, he’s put up a solid 2.50 ERA. At 36 years old, getting over a week of rest should help as well.
As previously mentioned, this Rays lineup doesn’t go deep very often. Still, sleep on this offense at your own risk. They’re 12th in runs scored (736), second in batting average (.258) and eighth in OPS (.728). In many ways, this team profiles similarly to the Blue Jays squad that eliminated New York last season. This is a top-heavy lineup, carried by the trio of Junior Caminero (142 wRC+), Yandy Diaz (125 wRC+) and Jonathan Aranda (123 wRC+). As an added bonus, Tampa Bay tends to perform better against righties (.751 OPS) compared to left-handed pitching (.678 OPS).
In this matchup between All-Stars, the Rays will counter with Drew Rasmussen. The seventh-year pro might not be a household name, but he should be after this season. Through 172.0 innings of work (30 starts), he’s notched a 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 174 strikeouts (9.1 K/9). Even more impressive, the right-hander ranks within the 97th percentile in walk rate (4.8%). Elite command will play against any team, especially a disciplined Yankees lineup. Rasmussen comes into Saturday with momentum, allowing two runs or less in each of his last six appearances.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the Pinstripes on offense. As a unit, they’re averaging the seventh-most runs per game in baseball (4.64). However, this lineup has been more effective at home than it has on the road. To boot, superstar slugger Aaron Judge remains on the injured list. Granted, the bats came alive during this week’s two-game set vs. Boston. Still, today’s matchup raises the difficulty up a notch. Rasmussen has dominated in this spot, allowing two runs or fewer in four of his previous five meetings with New York. The Yankees own the league’s seventh-lowest OPS on the road against right-handed pitching (.686).
Best Bet: Rays ML (-135)
This might be the best pitching matchup on the board today, with two starters capable of spinning a gem. While there’s too much criticism of Cole, he’s not the top arm on the mound tonight. Rasmussen has been dominant all season, especially when facing the Yankees. A New York club that doesn’t hit as well on the road faces an uphill climb this evening at the Trop.
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