Major League Baseball has an outstanding four-game schedule for this Saturday, with four Game 1s starting the Division Series throughout the day. In the final game of the day, the Milwaukee Brewers will welcome the San Diego Padres for what should be one of the best matchups on the board. The Brewers had the best record in the National League to earn the No. 1 seed, while the Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball and swept the Cubs to advance to this series. Game 1 starts at 8:30 p.m. ET, so let’s dive into the matchup and take a look at my top three best bets from the player prop market.
In the big picture, the Brewers are heavy home favorites at -219 on the Moneyline, and they are getting lots of love with 84% of the bets on the Moneyline as of Saturday afternoon. The over/under is 7.0 runs, with 53% of the bets on the under.
For each Major League Baseball matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook has a wide variety of batter and pitcher props on the board, so let’s take a look at my top plays from this Game 1 Padres-Brewers matchup on Saturday night.
Padres at Brewers Prop Bets for Saturday 10/3/26
Jacob Misiorowski O8.5 strikeouts (+107)
One of the reasons that the Brewers are heavily favored in this matchup is that they’ll give the ball to ace Jacob Misiorowski. The Miz went 16-5 in his 30 starts this season, racking up 252 strikeouts in 174 2/3 innings. He had an impressive 1.80 ERA and 2.17 FIP with a sky-high 37.9% K% and 12.98 K/9.
Misiorowski faced the Padres in May and worked seven scoreless innings in a no-decision. He racked up 10 strikeouts in that matchup to go over this prop line, but he finished under this prop line in seven of his last eight starts. The Brewers were managing his workload and getting him out of some of those starts early, but he still had a 29.6% K% and a 10.4 K/9.
Even though he’s only 24, he has playoff experience, racking up 14 strikeouts in 12 innings with a 1.50 ERA. He’ll be fired up and ready to feast against the Padres in this matchup as the Brewers look to their ace to get them a Game 1 victory. While the Padres do a good job at strikeout mitigation, Misiorowski’s stuff can be so dominant that he should be able to get to at least nine punchouts on Saturday night.
Jackson Chourio 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+157)
Since the Padres will counter Misiorowski with lefty Robbie Ray, Chourio is my best bet from the batting side for the Brewers. He has been Milwaukee’s top hitter against lefties this season, hitting .333 with a .242 ISO and .413 wOBA against southpaws. Chourio also hit nine of his homers on that side of the split and 15 of his 25 homers at home. I included Chourio in my top home run props for the day, and I also like this HRR (hits, runs and RBI) prop.
Chourio has 27 HRR in his last nine games, averaging 3.0 HRR over that stretch and going over this prop line in each of his four games.
In the playoffs, Chourio has gone 15-for-44 (.341) with four home runs and 32 HRR in 12 games (2.7 HRR per game). He went 10-for-33 in his nine games in last year’s postseason, and he comes into the playoffs poised for another big October run.
Fernado Tatis Jr. 2+ Hits + Runs + Stolen Bases (+104)
Even against Misiorowski, Tatis is locked in enough for this prop to be a solid play. He is 2-for-3 against The Miz in their past meetings with a pair of singles and a strikeout. In September, Tatis had 31 hits, 19 runs and seven stolen bases in 23 games, an average of 2.5 hits, runs and stolen bases per game.
In the two games against the Cubs, Tatis had six hits, runs and stolen bases, and all six came in Game 1, when he led the Padres to an 8-0 win. He went 0-for-4 in the second game of that series, but he’ll look to bounce back with a good start to this series at American Family Field.
Even though the Padres will have an uphill battle against Misiorowski, Tatis can deliver the green in this prop whether the Padres are able to get a lot of runs or not. Tatis should stay very aggressive as he tries to lead the Padres in their ongoing run through October.
Another way to be more aggressive is to combine these three Game 1 props into a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds of that SGP stack up to a strong +1000.
