Jaylen Warren Total Yards Pick for Steelers vs. Browns

In the first three seasons of his NFL career, Jaylen Warren didn’t get the opportunity to be a true bellcow, as he was stuck on the short end of a platoon with Najee Harris. He somewhat got the opportunity in 2025, taking 211 carries to Kenneth Gainwell’s 114, but it wasn’t until the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Week 3 win over the Cincinnati Bengals that he was able to truly become the undisputed top option with Rico Dowdle sidelined.

Dowdle will remain out for tonight’s Thursday Night Football clash against the Cleveland Browns, which is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET.

The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 38.5. The Browns are +124 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ll break down Warren’s total yards prop for tonight’s divisional showdown.

Jaylen Warren Total Yards Prop Bet vs. Browns

Jaylen Warren 110+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112)

Warren was spectacular against Cincinnati, turning 17 carries into 127 yards and adding another three catches on four targets for 49 yards. Despite his small frame, he has the potential for explosive plays, recording one catch and two runs for more than 20 yards against the Bengals. Warren also tied for the 11th-most 20-plus-yard runs in 2025, in which he totaled more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage while topping 110 all-purpose yards on three separate occasions.

This level is not new for him; in 2025, he finished with the 10th-highest offensive grades among 59 qualified running backs, his exact positioning in 2026. Warren has done an excellent job wriggling his way out of trouble, ranking second in rushing yards over expectation per attempt behind only Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s forced the fourth-most missed tackles (again, trailing only Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bhayshul Tuten), and he trails only Walker, Tuten, and Emmett Johnson in elusiveness.

This season, Pittsburgh has operated a pass-first offense, as it ranks sixth in total passing attempts. However, the Steelers were at their most effective in Week 3 when Warren was involved in the play, and Aaron Rodgers — who ranks sixth-to-last in completion percentage and just 20th among 38 qualified quarterbacks by PFF — simply isn’t good enough anymore to justify such a workload. At this point in his career, Rodgers isn’t very effective on deep throws; he’s posted the league’s highest offensive grade so far on passes behind the line of scrimmage and among its worst on throws of 20 or more yards. That should benefit Warren, as Rodgers’ well-timed, quick throws should allow him to get into space.

The Browns have plenty of talent on their defense, even after trading away Myles Garrett, but running backs have posed a challenge this season. Cleveland has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to the position this season, and it’s given up the fourth-most yards per attempt on the ground overall. In addition to ranking seventh-to-last by PFF’s run defense grades, the Browns have struggled to bring ball-carriers down, posting the ninth-lowest tackling grades and missing the second-most tackles overall.