Jaylen Warren Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice for Week 4

On Thursday Night Football this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North showdown. It may not be the greatest on-field matchup, but there are several storylines to follow – including the Steelers’ running back situation, headlined by Jaylen Warren.

The veteran took on the majority of work last week and showed out in fantasy, but should he be in lineups again this time around? Here are the details on whether you should start or sit Jaylen Warren in Week 4.

Jaylen Warren Start or Sit Advice for Week 4

For the last couple of years, Jaylen Warren has looked like a perfectly serviceable fantasy running back. He’s never been a star by any means and he capped out with a career-high average of 13.6 FPPG last season, but he’s a steady runner who can contribute in lineups as a solid RB2 or FLEX play. There was concern that he may be relegated to a lesser role in Pittsburgh’s offense with the hiring of Mike McCarthy as head coach and the signing of Rico Dowdle this past offseason, but so far, Warren has seen a respectable workload.

The baseline for his role thus far looks to be about 10 carries on the ground and a few targets in the receiving game. He’s logged double-digit rush attempts and at least four targets in all three of his appearances this season – even when sharing the field with Dowdle in the first two games. That’s a great sign that Warren will be involved plenty moving forward, but the real upside comes when his teammate doesn’t play. Last week, Dowdle didn’t suit up due to a toe injury and Warren served as the primary halfback. In that matchup, he handled 17 rush attempts for 127 yards and caught three-of-four targets for 49 yards through the air. While he didn’t reach the end zone, he still finished the day with 20.6 fantasy points in PPR, a very nice finish against a much-improved Bengals defense.

The question becomes whether Warren can repeat that this week on Thursday Night Football. The most encouraging sign for his Week 4 fantasy outlook is the injury status of Dowdle, who has been ruled out after logging a DNP on the first two days of practice, leaving Warren as a probable workhorse once again. Due to his status at the top of the depth chart, Warren should be positioned for at least another RB2-caliber performance thanks to his total volume of touches.

Warren has produced 13.9 FPPG this season, outperforming his xFPPG of 11.5. He’s been incredibly efficient with his touches, averaging 5.68 YPC with a 13.2% explosive rush percentage that ranks 14th at the position. He’s also getting that valuable receiving work with at least two catches and 27 yards in each of his three contests. Really, it’s fairly shocking that he’s been this good for fantasy thus far without reaching the end zone even once.

The Browns used to be an imposing defensive matchup, but no longer. While they’re allowing just 17.1 FPPG to RBs this season, they do rank 19th in EPA/rush allowed and 16th in success rate allowed. This certainly isn’t a bad matchup for Warren, especially given the workload he’s likely to be given.

The Bottom Line

When Dowdle gets back on the field, it may be fair to waver on whether these Steelers halfbacks are fantasy starters. Since he won’t play on Thursday, though, the situation is just about perfect for his teammate to produce.

Warren has been efficient with his touches this season and could be primed for a massive workload in Week 4. After showing what he could do when given most of the backfield touches last week, he should be a player fantasy managers start with confidence against Cleveland. Just make sure he’s in an RB slot rather than a FLEX position in your lineups to afford yourself more versatility when the Sunday slate rolls around.