Browns vs. Steelers anytime TD Scorer picks: Best bets & long shots

Pittsburgh and Cleveland enter Thursday night at 2-1, although neither offense has made scoring look particularly comfortable. The Steelers have converted just 33.3% of their red-zone possessions into touchdowns; Cleveland sits only slightly higher at 37.5%. With opportunities scarce, I want players whose workloads give them several ways to finish a possession.

Here are my two best bets and two long shots for tonight’s matchup at Huntington Bank Field.

Best Bets

Jaylen Warren (-110)

Mike McCarthy gave Warren five red-zone opportunities against Cincinnati, part of a terrific 20-touch afternoon that produced 176 scrimmage yards. Rico Dowdle’s continued absence should bring another substantial workload after Warren absorbed 90% of Pittsburgh’s backfield opportunities Sunday. That concentration matters when an offense might manufacture only a handful of scoring chances.

Cleveland gives Warren a favorable matchup once the tackling starts, surrendering a bottom-five 3.35 yards after contact per carry. Pittsburgh’s improved blocking also supplied 69 rushing yards before contact last week after minus 14 across its first two games. I like the combination: Warren finally has some room to accelerate, and Cleveland struggles to finish the resulting tackles. His five red-zone chances give this bet substance beyond Sunday’s impressive yardage.

Harold Fannin Jr. (+265)

Deshaun Watson found Fannin for touchdowns from two and 14 yards against Carolina, returning to his tight end when Cleveland needed its winning score. Those nine targets pushed Fannin’s two-game total to 15; through three weeks, he has earned a substantial 21.7% target share. Watson keeps giving him meaningful work in an otherwise uneven passing offense.

Pittsburgh has allowed tight ends to catch 71.4% of their targets and average 12 yards per reception, enough efficiency to make Fannin dangerous beyond the immediate goal line. His two season-long red-zone targets temper expectations after the two-score eruption, but the broader workload supports another useful evening. I expect Watson to keep looking underneath, where Fannin can turn a catch into the final few yards of a scoring drive.

Long Shots

Deshaun Watson (+425)

Cleveland’s next rushing touchdown could begin with Watson dropping back to pass. His 12% scramble rate ranks third among quarterbacks with at least 50 snaps, while his 14% designed-rush share ranks second. He’s averaging eight carries and 35 rushing yards per game, enough involvement to take his legs seriously in this market.

Watson added 45 yards on 11 carries against Carolina and nearly scored before a defender stopped him near the goal line. Pittsburgh presents a tougher assignment, particularly with center Elgton Jenkins unavailable, so I’m keeping this wager small. Still, Cleveland has incorporated quarterback runs alongside Watson’s improvisation. At +425, I’ll take a chance on him finishing one himself.

Darnell Washington (+550)

Rodgers targeted Washington four times Sunday, matching his total from Pittsburgh’s first two games combined. Washington rewarded those throws with three catches for 67 yards while running a route on a season-high 58.3% of dropbacks. His receiving role finally expanded enough to make that imposing size relevant beyond his blocking assignments.

Washington’s efficient 2.1 YPRR ranks sixth among tight ends with at least 40 routes. Cleveland, meanwhile, has surrendered 19 catches and 198 yards to the position through three games. Only one became a touchdown, so this remains a bet on Washington’s expanding opportunity rather than an established scoring weakness. At +550, I like Rodgers finding him on a short throw and asking Cleveland to bring him down.