Kicking off the Week 4 NFL slate, the Pittsburgh Steelers will square off with the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North Divisional battle.
The entire division is off to a 2-1 start to the year, and this is a matchup that could have some major seeding implications as the season continues. Both the Steelers and Browns should be relatively encouraged by their opening three performances, and this will be an interesting measuring stick matchup between the two sides.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Steelers enter as 2.5-point road favorites with -148 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns hold +124 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 38.5 points.
But there are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond backing a side or total. Let’s take a look at my top three favorite player props for the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Steelers at Browns NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
Jaylen Warren Over 98.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-112)
Rico Dowdle missed last week for the Steelers due to a toe sprain and will not take the field in this Thursday Night battle either. Dowdle’s absence paved the way for Jaylen Warren to play a more expanded role, and the 27-year-old made the most of these opportunities. Warren finished with 127 rushing yards in last week’s victory over the Bengals and added 40 additional yards through the air.
While this is a lofty bar of production to repeat, this is another matchup that Warren should be in line to play a major role. Cleveland enters this week ranked 23rd in the league in total rushing yards allowed, 23rd in net yards per rush attempt, and 22nd in rush DVOA. Pittsburgh made some changes on the offensive line before last week, and the increased level of success running the football can be directly tied to this. Warren also does an excellent job finishing runs, and has consistently ranked near the top of the league in broken-tackle rate throughout his career.
With Dowdle sidelined on Sunday, Warren was on the field for 90.3% of the offensive snaps and saw 20 total touches in the matchup. Expect the same level of work-rate on Thursday Night, for the Oklahoma State product to gradually chip away at this to eclipse this combined rising and receiving total for the second straight week. Opportunity is the greatest driver of production, and Warren will have this on his side for this matchup. Dowdle missed practice on both Monday and Tuesday, and now has officially been ruled out for the second straight week. Count on Warren seeing plenty of chances with the ball in his hands and producing accordingly..
Quinshon Judkins Over 73.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-113)
On the other side of the running back battle, Quinshon Judkins will be looking to build off his best week of the young season. During the victory over the Panthers, Judkins tallied 17 rush attempts for 80 yards and added a pair of receptions through the air. While Deshaun Watson has added 24 rush attempts of his own, no other member of this Cleveland roster has notched more than four rush attempts. Judkins should be viewed as the clear bell-cow back, and he plays a more notable role in the passing game than is largely acknowledged. Through the opening three games, he has pulled in all nine receptions for 53 yards so far this season.
The Steelers’ defense has left plenty to be desired when it comes to stopping the run. Through their opening three games, Pittsburgh ranks 18th in rushing yards allowed and 21st in net yards per rush attempt. They are allowing 113.1 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry on average, and have conceded 13 receptions for 110 yards out of the backfield already. Last week Chase Brown tallied 69 total rushing and receiving yards against this Steelers team. The week before, the Patriots rushed for 136 total yards against the Steelers, and Bijan Robinson shredded this defensive unit for 173 total yards in the season opener.
While Judkins will not quite be confused with Robinson, he is plenty capable of breaking free for a big play. Cleveland has been fairly conservative in their play call and allowed Judkins to see plenty of chances in the offense. He is coming off a season-low 51.4% of the offensive snaps played last week, but recorded a season-high 17 rush attempts for 80 yards in the process. Expect him to see the necessary volume of opportunities for this to be a comfortable line to clear and for Judkins to eclipse 73.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in the divisional battle.
Deshaun Watson to Record 2+ Passing Touchdowns (+259)
It has quietly been an impressive start to the season for Deshaun Watson, who is desperately attempting to find his NFL footing after a turbulent few years. Through the first three games, Watson has completed 68.3% of his pass attempts for 587 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, and has notched just one interception. He has also added 105 rushing yards on the ground.
There have been plenty of positive talking points about the Pittsburgh secondary, but this defensive unit is not as ironclad as some are making it out to be. CB Joey Porter Jr. has been ruled out for this matchup, and the Steelers were shredded for 282 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air by Joe Burrow just last week. Pittsburgh’s defensive metrics look strong, but it should be noted that they have faced a version of Drake Maye that is struggling in a major way this season and Cooper Rush in the season opener.
Watson has thrown for two touchdowns in back-to-back games, and Burrow revealed some flaws in this secondary last week. This is the same quarterback who has thrown as many as 33 passing touchdowns over a season, and is playing his best football in several years. Cleveland has not tallied a rushing touchdown yet this season, and count on Watson continuing to be the biggest driver of scoring when the Browns find themselves in this range. Getting +259 odds for Watson to throw for two or more touchdowns through the air is great value considering the context, and I am backing the Browns’ QB to clear this bar for the third straight week.
