The American League side of the postseason bracket kicks off this evening in Houston. The White Sox (84-78), despite a second-half slump, shocked everyone en route to their first playoff appearance since 2021. Chicago now hopes to earn a trip to the ALDS, where the rival Guardians await. As for the Astros (81-81), they made history as the worst division winner in MLB history. Still, this battle-tested group has what it takes to go on a deep run. Which side has the edge during Tuesday’s Game 1 matchup?
The Astros are favorites (-126) over the White Sox; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Chicago and Houston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Astros pick, best bet today
- White Sox vs. Astros under 8.5 runs (-126): Both of these lineups are dangerous, but flawed. Chicago’s best hitter is in the midst of a slump, while Houston tends to perform much worse at home on offense. In a bullpen day for each team, these managers should be able to mix and match their way into favorable matchups.
White Sox vs. Astros prediction, preview
Chicago’s postseason outlook likely hinges on its ability to hit the ball. This season, the team was fifth in runs scored (776), fifth in home runs (211) and ninth in OPS (.726). Granted, there are some reasons to be concerned. Munetaka Murakami has looked like a shell of himself during the second half. Since the start of August, he’s slashing just .156/.299/.375 at the plate. Fortunately for the South Siders, this isn’t a one-man show. Miguel Vargas (134 wRC+) and Sam Antonacci (122 wRC+) have given this lineup depth, while do-it-all infielder Chase Meidroth (118 wRC+) seems healthy following an injury scare. Six White Sox hitters with at least 200 plate appearances have recorded a wRC+ above 100.
This is shaping up to be a bullpen day for Houston, with right-hander AJ Blubaugh serving as an opener. The rookie has been solid so far, posting a 3.66 ERA over 96.0 innings of work. It wouldn’t be a shock if manager Joe Espada lets the youngster toss up to three innings, assuming things are going smoothly. After that, it’s all about bridging the gap towards the late innings. Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader form a lethal back-end relief duo. Together, those two could combine for up to nine outs. This Astros bullpen put up a decent, albeit unspectacular, 4.08 ERA during the regular season. Houston’s relievers rank within the league’s top ten teams in strikeout rate (23.7%) and left on base percentage (73.3%).
Much like their opposition tonight, the Astros rely heavily on their offense. They’re 13th in runs (734), first in home runs (226) and seventh in OPS (.732). Leading the charge is MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez. Finally healthy, the Cuban slugger has put together the best campaign of his prolific career. Through 158 games, he’s slashing .316/.432/.601 with 42 home runs and 106 RBIs. With that being said, it’s fair to call this lineup a bit top-heavy. Even more surprising, the ‘Stros tend to struggle at Daikin Park. They’re averaging just 4.25 runs per game at home, 11th-worst in the majors. Just four Houston hitters (min. 50 at-bats) have an OPS above .680 since the start of September.
In many ways, the White Sox are opting for a similar approach on the mound tonight. Hagen Smith will start things off for Chicago, making just his second start of the season. During his 28.0 innings of work, the southpaw has allowed just four earned runs (1.29 ERA). It’s a small sample size, but there’s reason to believe the 23-year-old can spin a few decent innings. After that, it’s anyone’s guess for manager Will Venable. Fortunately for Chicago, the relief crew was a major strength this season. This White Sox bullpen has recorded an ERA of 3.70, eighth-best in the big leagues.
Best Bet: White Sox vs. Astros under 8.5 runs (-126)
Both of these teams wield upper-echelon offenses. However, there’s some reason for doubt. Houston struggles scoring at home, and much of its production hinges on the performance of Alvarez. Chicago wields a capable lineup, but this postseason matchup a clear step up in intensity. Murakami’s recent struggles only make things more daunting at the plate. Expect an intense, low-scoring showdown between these two AL hopefuls.
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