Finally, the playoff picture in the American League is starting to crystallize, and it seems increasingly unlikely that there will be a sub-.500 team in the playoffs for the first time in a 162-game season.
After taking the series opener in a three-game road set against the Seattle Mariners last night, the Texas Rangers are still under .500 at 72-73, but they’re two games behind the Houston Astros for the division lead and 1.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the final Wild Card spot.
First pitch in the middle game is set for 4:10 p.m. ET this afternoon. Cody Bradford will start for Texas, and Seattle will turn to Kade Anderson.
Let’s break down this battle of division and Wild Card-chasing teams with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Best Bets
- Seattle Mariners -0.5 – 1st 5 Innings (-110): Anderson has a worse ERA this season than Bradford, but that doesn’t tell the full story; baseball’s fifth-ranked prospect is due for a great game, and Statcast numbers suggest Bradford is due for a blow-up.
- Cal Raleigh 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-103): In the last 20 games, MVP Raleigh has returned, as he’s posted an incredible 1.277 OPS across that span while recording two or more H/R/RBI in each of his last seven games.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
The Rangers have been above .500 since August 4, keeping themselves in contention for a division title that no team has properly grasped. Texas hasn’t made the playoffs since winning the World Series in 2023, and it actually had a better record last season, but given the mediocrity of the AL as a whole in 2026, a 23-26 record since the All-Star break and the 13th-best offense in baseball across that span has been enough to keep the Rangers on track. Since the Midsummer Classic, Ezequiel Durán has continued his breakout season, posting an OPS north of .800, and Joc Pederson has enjoyed quite the bounce-back. If Josh Jung (calf) can return before the playoffs, that’ll give Texas an additional boost, as he’s been one of its best hitters this season. However, the Rangers’ pitching hasn’t been very good as of late, as their bullpen has an ERA north of 5 since the All-Star break, including a 5.40 mark since the start of September. Beyond Jacob Latz and Jakob Junis, Texas doesn’t have many reliable relief options, and with Peyton Gray injured, it’s had to turn to pitchers like Robby Ahlstrom, who’s recorded a 6.29 ERA in 34.1 innings. The Rangers will need to figure out their relief corps if they want to make a playoff run.
The Mariners have been arguably the single most disappointing team in baseball this season after coming within a few innings of making their first-ever World Series last fall. Seattle had a wide-open division to claim in the second half of the season and has gone just 19-29 since the All-Star break, putting up the league’s fourth-worst offense in that span. Even though Cal Raleigh has remembered how to hit (he’s slashing .328/.449/.828 in his last 20 games), Julio Rodríguez’s slump has left the Mariners completely devoid of offensive production beyond Raleigh and Randy Arozarena, by far the team’s best player this season. More stunningly, Seattle has had the worst pitching staff over the last 30 days, pitching to an atrocious 6.33 ERA, with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and even Bryan Woo experiencing blow-up outings in the last month. Trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez hasn’t stabilized a shaky bullpen, and top prospect Anderson hasn’t been as effective in the rotation as his talent might indicate. The roster still has enough that it could bounce back to contention next season, but at this point, 2026 is a wash.
Bradford returned in August after missing all of the 2025 season while recovering from elbow surgery, and while he hasn’t been great, a 4.45 ERA across six starts is usually not the reason for a loss. All in all, the southpaw has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his starts. Still, advanced numbers suggest that that blow-up was always on the horizon; his 5.46 xERA would rank in the bottom decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, as would his .285 xBA. To be fair, he’d have an above-median chase rate and a top-decile walk rate, exacerbating one of the Mariners’ weaknesses (they have the eighth-most aggressive plate approach). However, Bradford would also have bottom-decile whiff and strikeout rates, putting additional pressure on what has already been a below-average fielding unit. His high average exit velocity and his tendency to give up barrels might not matter so much against a relatively soft-hitting lineup, but it’s never ideal, especially with Raleigh in the form that he’s in. Furthermore, Bradford has extreme home-road splits, pitching to a 5.83 ERA on the road throughout his career, so facing him should be a respite for a Seattle team that sports baseball’s third-worst home offense.
Anderson’s first three MLB starts haven’t gone particularly well, but he should still hold the edge in the starting pitching matchup. He’s given up nine earned runs in his 15.0 innings, but given his spectacular MiLB track record (a 1.06 ERA in 18 starts for Double-A Arkansas, including zero earned runs allowed in his final four starts at that level), it’s only a matter of time before he gets on track in MLB, too. He hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify, but his 3.15 ERA would be a top-quartile mark if he had, as would his .197 xBA. Through his first three starts, Anderson has struggled somewhat to fool batters, ranking in what would be the bottom quartile in whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, but Texas strikes out at an above-average rate and doesn’t walk much, and his control should improve as the nerves wear off. Anderson has done an excellent job inducing soft contact so far, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate that would both be in the top quartile, which should be an asset against a Rangers team with plenty of raw pop. Texas has performed almost identically whether at home or on the road.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners -0.5 – 1st 5 Innings (-110)
I thought Anderson’s first signature moment in MLB would come in his latest start against the Athletics last Thursday, but I’m taking another shot. This Rangers offense is more fine than good, and Anderson should easily be able to out-duel Bradford.
Strong Lean: Cal Raleigh 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-103)
I’m not sure the odds have adjusted to just how good Raleigh has been in his last 20 games. In fact, he’s had at least two H/R/RBI’s in each of his last seven games. Even in his down season, he’s still sported a 94th-percentile barrel rate.
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