At six games out of a playoff spot, the Cardinals (72-74) will need a miracle to reach the postseason. Still, a foundation has been laid down for this franchise going forward. Several intriguing young hitters, including budding star Jordan Walker, have given St. Louis fans hope for the future. The Redbirds will hope to inch closer to .500 this afternoon during Wednesday’s series finale with the Giants (61-85). Which side will come out on top today in San Francisco?
The Cardinals are favorites (-119) over the Giants; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between St. Louis and San Francisco on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Giants pick, best bet today
- Cardinals ML (-119): Pallante is one of the sport’s more underrated arms. He shouldn’t have too much difficulty keeping the Giants in check. On the other side, a Cardinals offense that rakes on the road should find a way to do damage against the inexperienced Tidwell.
Cardinals vs. Giants prediction, preview
Starting pitching hasn’t been terrible for St. Louis, but it isn’t exactly a strength either. Andre Pallante has been the club’s top arm, tossing 141.0 innings for the Cardinals. During that time, he’s recorded a 3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (6.3 K/9). Despite the lack of whiffs, the right-hander makes up for it with solid command (2.9 BB/9). However, Pallante’s greatest skill is suppressing quality contact. He sits within the 84th percentile or better in barrel rate (5.1%), hard-hit rate (33.6%) and ground ball rate (55.2%). That’s led to a minuscule 0.6 HR/9 ratio, third-best among pitchers with at least 140.0 innings of work.
The Giants aren’t an offensive juggernaut, especially since shipping off Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. That’s especially true at home, where the team has scored the league’s eighth-fewest runs per game (4.14). If there’s one strength for this group, it’s home runs. San Francisco is tied for the sport’s 15th-most long balls this season (166). However, as previously mentioned, Pallanre excels at keeping the ball from elevating. Interestingly enough, St. Louis’ hurler performs much better on the road (2.83 ERA). In addition, the Giants own baseball’s tenth-worst OPS at home against right-handed pitching (.711).
As for San Francisco, Blade Tidwell will get the nod this afternoon. Over 42.2 innings pitched (six starts), he’s produced a 4.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 36 strikeouts (7.6 K/9). The rookie’s peripherals aren’t particularly impressive; a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate are both below-average. To make matters worse, Tidwell has surrendered six earned runs in each of his previous two appearances at home. Even his last successful outing, five innings of two-run ball vs. Pittsburgh, also came with five walks allowed. No matter how you slice it, the 25-year-old isn’t someone that deserves implicit trust.
The Cardinals wield one of the league’s better lineups, ranking tenth in runs scored (662). The aforementioned Walker is the headliner, but Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera also deserve mention. All three players have posted a wRC+ above 110 this season. That’s without mentioning top prospects Joshua Baez (128 wRC+) and JJ Wetherholt (104 wRC+), two exciting young talents. St. Louis has racked up 58 runs over its previous ten contests, third-most in the majors. As an added bonus, the Redbirds are averaging the third-most runs per game on the road (5.24).
On paper, the Cardinals wield a decisive edge on the mound and at the plate. San Francisco’s only positive in this one is playing at home. However, that’s nullified by St. Louis’ offensive prowess on the road. Given the way the Cards have been swinging the bat in recent weeks, this feels like a nice price for Wednesday’s matchup.
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