No team has ever lost more than 100 games in a season and then gone on to win the division the following season, but the Chicago White Sox are on the verge of making history. They currently hold a three-game lead in the AL Central and need to keep winning to hold off the late-charging Cleveland Guardians.
Chicago will play a three-game home series this weekend against the Minnesota Twins, who are six games back and could conceivably get back in the division title race with a sweep this weekend.
The series opener is set to begin tonight at 7:40 p.m. ET. Zebby Matthews will start for the Twins, and Erick Fedde is set to toe the rubber for the White Sox.
Let’s break down this critical divisional affair with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Best Bets
- Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-117): Chicago just took two of three games when these teams met last week, and now this series will take place at Rate Field. The White Sox have baseball’s fifth-best home winning percentage this season.
- Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Runs (+264): This is extremely against the grain, given that Murakami has a .363 OPS and just one extra-base hit in his last 15 games, but he’s slugged .633 against the right-handed four-seamers Matthews loves to throw.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox prediction, preview
These teams just played last week in Minnesota, and Chicago won two of the three games. However, after taking two of three games against the Detroit Tigers earlier in the weekend, the Twins enter this series in hot form, and despite going just 19-24 since the All-Star break, they have baseball’s fifth-easiest schedule for the rest of the season and remain in contention. Minnesota has been buoyed by its offense, which has posted the third-best OPS since the All-Star break despite being without Byron Buxton for all but 11 games across that span. Ryan Jeffers has maintained an OPS in the 800’s all season and Kaelen Culpepper has gotten his MLB career off to a hot start. Furthermore, although the Twins’ rotation saw its ERA balloon from 4.24 to 5.14 after the All-Star break, their bullpen has posted a sub-4 mark across that span. Joe Ryan’s injury hurt the rotation, and trade deadline acquisition Dean Kremer hasn’t exactly been a star, but reliever A.J. Minter has a 0.69 ERA in 14 appearances with the team and Jeff Hoffman (3.72 in 13 outings) hasn’t been too bad either. Ryan is expected to return to the rotation at some point in the coming week, which could help Minnesota make a stunning playoff push.
Meanwhile, Chicago has had plenty of opportunities to shut the door on the division, but it’s lost four of its last five games, including three of four against its likely ALDS opponent in the Houston Astros. The White Sox have slowed down slightly since the All-Star break, going just 23-22 with baseball’s 12th-worst offense. In that span, Munetaka Murakami has hit first rookie woes, slashing .188/.333/.406, and Colson Montgomery has also hit below the Mendoza Line. Tristan Peters’ strong August has helped make up for it, but questions remain as to whether Chicago’s young offense has quite enough to properly compete in the postseason. Additionally, the White Sox’s rotation struggled mightily in August, pitching to just a 6.21 ERA, and only strong bullpen performance and timely offense led to wins. Chicago’s trade deadline acquisitions have been poor, as starter Luis Castillo has been awful, posting a 7.52 ERA in six starts, as has reliever Huascar Brazobán, but rookie Hagen Smith was called up in August and has pitched to a 0.82 ERA in 11.0 innings. The White Sox look likely to make the playoffs regardless — per FanGraphs, they have an 81.9% chance — but they won’t win a playoff series if they can’t get more out of their rotation.
Matthews has gotten slightly better season-over-season; in 2024, he pitched to a 6.69 ERA in nine starts, improved to a 5.56 ERA in 16 starts last season, and he has a 4.58 mark in 19 starts so far in 2026. Since a proper blow-up on July 19, Matthews has been pretty sharp, recording a 3.21 ERA in seven starts. He’s also given up just one earned run in each of his last three outings, and he fell just two outs shy of a complete game against Chicago last week. Matthews’ advanced numbers aren’t great, but they haven’t been awful, either, as he sports a 30th-percentile xERA. His biggest strength is his 77th-percentile walk rate, which could be an asset against the White Sox, given that they’ve earned the seventh-most walks this season. Chicago also isn’t well-suited to make him pay for his 27th-percentile whiff rate, as it has found air at the third-highest clip. The issue is, when Matthews gets hit, he tends to get hit hard, as he has a 24th-percentile hard-hit rate and a bottom-decile barrel rate and average exit velocity, and the White Sox (the only team to roster three hitters with at least 25 home runs each) are a team full of mashers. Matthews has also posted a pitiful 6.38 ERA on the road, and Chicago has been significantly better at home.
Fedde has been better in 2026 after recording a 5.49 ERA in 2025, returning to the team with whom he managed a 3.11 mark across 21 starts in 2024. He’s alternated between a starting and bullpen role this season, recording a 4.31 ERA in 13 starts and a 4.01 mark in 16 relief appearances, but given that he’s thrown at least 50 pitches in each of his last four outings, he should be stretched out to a relatively normal starter’s load. Advanced numbers prefer Matthews to Fedde, as Fedde owns a 23rd-percentile xERA and 16th-percentile pitching run value. Fedde is a contact pitcher, as he ranks in the bottom decile in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, and the Twins rarely strike out, putting pressure on a defense that ranks seventh-to-last in Defensive Runs Saved. However, the 33-year-old has been comparatively decent at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 37th percentile in barrel rate, the 40th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 53rd percentile in average exit velocity, and, the last month or so aside, Minnesota hasn’t displayed a ton of pop. The location splits are also in Fedde’s favor, as he’s posted a solid 3.388 ERA at home and the Twins have been marginally worse on the road.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-117)
Matthews just produced the second-best game of his career against this team five days ago, but he’s been a fundamentally different pitcher at home and on the road. The White Sox are 14 games over .500 at home this season, and the starting pitching matchup is close enough that it’s worth picking them in what is effectively a toss-up.
Strong Lean: Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Runs (+264)
Murakami has been quite horrific over his last 15 games, failing to hit a homer and posting a .091/.254/.109 slash line, but the idea of backing a player who ranks second in barrel rate against a pitcher who’s allowed just a sixth-percentile barrel rate remains tempting.
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