Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s full slate: Jake Bauers, Heriberto Hernandez and Yordan Alvarez.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | +303 | Jake Bauers has almost doubled his previous career-high in homers in 2026 (23). He also owns a 96th percentile hard hit rate (52.7%). I’ll take my chances with the veteran against Rhett Lowder at Great American Ball Park this evening. Lowder has surrendered at least one home run in six straight starts and he’s conceding a robust 11.7% barrel rate to opposing LHBs. |
| Heriberto Hernandez | +373 | Hernandez has been the Marlins’ best hitter of left-handed pitching so far in 2026, slashing .250/.343/.556 with 10 long balls and an eye-popping .306 ISO. Meanwhile, since July 31, Shota Imanaga has surrendered a whopping 3.38 opponent home runs per nine and an inflated 11.8% opponent barrel rate. |
| Yordan Alvarez | +216 | Merrill Kelly’s been awful all season long, pitching to a first percentile expected ERA (6.94) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.1%). Now he’ll have to square-off with AL MVP frontrunner Yordan Alvarez. While Alvarez has only hit one long ball since August 15, he still sports 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.450) and expected slugging rate (.654). |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Jake Bauers 1+ Home Run (+303)
The Brewers don’t hit a lot of home runs. In fact, they’ve hit the fewest in the National League (131). Still, that doesn’t change the fact that Jake Bauers has almost doubled his previous career-high in homers in 2026 (23). It doesn’t change the fact that Bauers owns a 96th percentile hard hit rate (52.7%), either. I’ll take my chances with the veteran at Great American Ball Park this evening. Remember, this market isn’t just about the hitter — it’s even more about the pitcher. Rhett Lowder has surrendered at least one home run in six straight starts. He’s also conceding a robust 11.7% barrel rate to opposing LHBs. This all seems like a formula for some fireworks on Friday night.
Heriberto Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+373)
All Hernandez has done since debuting at the MLB level last season is hit home runs. 33 in 702 plate appearances, to be specific. That, my friends, is a bat that has some legitimate pop. Narrowing the scope, Hernandez has also been the Marlins’ best hitter of left-handed pitching so far in 2026, slashing .250/.343/.556 with 10 long balls and an eye-popping .306 ISO. That’s the vibe he’ll bring to tonight’s matchup with Shota Imanaga and the Cubs. Imanaga has struggled to keep the ball in the park since coming over from the NPB in 2024, but the last six weeks have taken things to another level. Since July 31, Imanaga has surrendered a whopping 3.38 opponent home runs per nine and an inflated 11.8% opponent barrel rate. These are the reddest of red flags.
Yordan Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+216)
While Merrill Kelly is technically coming off throwing seven scoreless innings in his last start, there’s a couple things to consider here. First and foremost, Kelly’s been awful all season long, pitching to a first percentile expected ERA (6.94) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (12.1%). Secondly, that outing was against the Giants, who are currently throwing out a lineup that is 60% rookies at the moment. Tonight, Kelly will have to square-off with AL MVP frontrunner Yordan Alvarez. While Alvarez has only hit one long ball since August 15, he still sports 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.450) and expected slugging rate (.654). This feels like the perfect matchup for Alvarez to break out of his mini power slump.
