The Yankees (80-60) are just three games behind the Rays for first place in the AL East. Between now and October, New York will need to keep reeling off wins if it wants to catch Tampa Bay. That includes this weekend’s series, an interleague clash with the Padres (73-67). San Diego might have even more to play for, hoping to outlast the Diamondbacks for possession of the National League’s final wild card spot. Which of these clubs will come out on top tonight at Petco Park?
The Yankees are favorites (-119) over the Padres; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between New York and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Padres pick, best bet today
- Yankees ML (-119): Fried, even in a limited role, should keep San Diego’s lineup in check. It helps that he’s supported by an elite bullpen. Buehler has shown signs of improvement, but he’s still a difficult arm to trust. Back the visiting Yankees as slight favorites.
Yankees vs. Padres prediction, preview
Max Fried will get the start for New York, still working his way back from an elbow bone bruise. During his first start off of the injured list, the lefty fired 3.2 innings of one-run ball vs. Boston. He’s posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 83 strikeouts (8.3 K/9) during 90.0 innings pitched (16 starts). However, manager Aaron Boone has already hinted at his plans to keep the veteran’s workload in check. That likely means an appearance for Will Warren in relief. The right-hander has been a starter all season in New York’s rotation, but he’ll piggyback off of Fried tonight. His numbers aren’t amazing (4.23 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), but seven innings scoreless vs. the Red Sox last weekend highlights his potential. The Pinstripes also have the luxury of turning to their bullpen, the best in baseball with a stellar 3.09 ERA. After getting the day off last night, these relievers will be well-rested.
Despite a midsummer resurgence, the Padres are having some difficulty at the plate in recent weeks. They’ve scored a total of 59 runs over their last 15 contests, seventh-worst in the majors during that stretch. Even worse, the Friars are averaging the league’s fifth-fewest runs per game at home (3.99). Big bats such as Manny Machado (98 wRC+), Jackson Merrill (97 wRC+) and Xander Bogaerts (87 wRC+) have disappointed. To make matters worse, San Diego has put up the ninth-worst OPS against left-handed pitching (.691). An elite arm such as Fried, alongside New York’s elite bullpen, could keep this group off balance.
It’ll be up to Walker Buehler to keep the Padres in the mix tonight. It’s been a middling campaign from the veteran, far removed from his days with the Dodgers. Still, it appears that he’s begun to turn a corner. The right-hander has a stellar 2.67 ERA over his last five outings. Still, that alone isn’t the largest sample size. Buehler has a 13th percentile chase rate (27.1%) and tenth percentile whiff rate (19.8%). That lack of swing and misses could hurt him this evening against a lineup that’s usually good for a few K’s. The Yankees are averaging 9.20 strikeouts per game, fifth-most in baseball.
With that being said, the Pinstripes do one thing particularly well on offense: crush homers. They’ve smacked an American League-best 192 long balls this season. To boot, the team ranks seventh with 3.59 walks per game. Buehler has handed out his fair share of free passes as well (3.4 BB/9). A lefty-laden Yankees lineup should be eager to take on a soft-throwing righty. That includes Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr.; all four batters have an OPS of .788 or better over New York’s last ten games. As a member of the Red Sox last season, Buehler coughed up seven runs over 4.1 innings (14.54 ERA) against the Bronx Bombers.
Despite his recent success, it’s difficult to trust Buehler. Almost all of New York’s hottest bats are on the left side of the plate; that’s bad news for any right-handed pitcher. As for Fried, he should find success in limited action against a mediocre Padres lineup. San Diego’s lack of success vs. southpaws is concerning, even if this becomes a bullpen game. The Yankees are worth consideration on the road tonight.
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