The race for a spot in the postseason is heating up across the National League. Two of the Senior Circuit’s final three wild card spots are up for grabs. Among those angling for a playoff appearance, the Phillies (79-60) are getting hot at the right time. Philadelphia has won six straight games, including the first two matchups in this series. As for the Diamondbacks (73-67), Wednesday presents a much-needed opportunity to get back on track. Can Arizona avoid the sweep this afternoon at home?
The Phillies are favorites (-131) over the Diamondbacks; the over/under is set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Arizona on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet today
- Phillies ML (-131); Painter has been much better in recent weeks, and the Diamondbacks aren’t much of a threat against righties. Philadelphia’s red-hot lineup facing a bullpen day has all the makings of a sweep this afternoon.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Former top prospect Andrew Painter has been a massive disappointment during his debut in the big leagues. Over 98.1 innings (18 starts), he’s on the hook for a 5.95 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 85 strikeouts (7.8 K/9). With that being said, the 23-year-old has begun turning his season around in recent weeks. During his last six outings, the right-hander has notched a 3.78 ERA. He’s surrendered two earned runs or less in four of those contests. Painter utilizes a blazing fastball, averaging around 96 MPH on his four-seamer. However, his command of the strike zone can vary from start to start (3.4 BB/9).
Arizona’s offense has hit a bit of a rough patch, exacerbated by Ketel Marte’s bizarre stint on the injured list. Although the second baseman returned to the active roster this week, it hasn’t made much of a difference. The Diamondbacks have scored 34 runs over their last ten matchups, tied for third-fewest in baseball during that time. To make matters worse, the Snakes have produced a National League-worst .685 OPS against right-handed pitching. When Painter faced Arizona on April 12th, he tossed five innings of one-run ball. The D-backs are slashing .218/.311/.365 against four-seam fastballs of 96 MPH or faster.
Taylor Clarke will toe the slab for Arizona, making his first start of the season. Over 62 appearances out of the bullpen, he’s delivered a stellar 2.60 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. However, the 33-year-old has allowed a run in four of his previous eight appearances. Don’t expect much more than an inning or two from the veteran this afternoon. Don’t expect much support on the mound for Clarke in this one, either. The Diamondbacks have posted a below average 4.16 ERA out of the bullpen, 13th-worst in the majors.
Success on the mound won’t come easy during Wednesday’s matchup. The Phillies come into today’s game on an absolute tear at the plate. They’ve scored 154 runs since August 1st, third-most in baseball during that time. Six different players in that stretch (minimum 70 at bats) have registered an OPS above .700. Philadelphia ranks tenth in runs scored (631) and 11th in home runs (165). Arizona’s pitching staff has allowed the 11th-most home runs in baseball to opponents at home (80).
Painter has been a much improved pitcher over the past month. He doesn’t need to be at his absolute best against an Arizona lineup that doesn’t hit right-handed pitching very well. As for the D-backs, their subpar bullpen doesn’t inspire much confidence when facing Philadelphia’s scorching-hot lineup. Another win for the Phillies feels likelier than not on Wednesday.
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