Realistically, the NL Wild Card race is down to five teams, as in addition to the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs (who have effectively secured their spots in the postseason), the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins all have at least a one-in-30 chance of ultimately qualifying for the tournament.
Miami, in last among the five contending teams, needs to make a run to improve its playoff odds, and it’s off to a good start, beating the hot Kansas City Royals last night in the opener of a three-game set.
The middle game of the series is set for tonight at 7:40 p.m. ET. Eury Pérez will take the mound for the Marlins, and Noah Cameron will start for the Royals.
Let’s break down this potential pitcher’s duel with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals Best Bets
- Miami Marlins Moneyline (-105): This is about as much of a toss-up as it gets, but Miami has won three of Pérez’s last four starts, and I think it has the better overall roster.
- Under 9 (-115): I’ll also take the under out of respect for Cameron, who’s recorded a sub-2 ERA across his last seven starts, and Kansas City’s bullpen, one of the worst units in baseball, is trending in the right direction.
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals prediction, preview
If Miami ultimately misses the postseason, it’ll come down to the franchise record 12-game losing streak that the Marlins went on between July 10 and July 26, taking them from 10 games over .500 to two games under. Although they’ve bounced back somewhat since then, going 14-14 since the start of August, it might well be too little, too late. Miami had baseball’s sixth-worst offense in August, as trading away catcher Liam Hicks at the trade deadline has proven costly, especially since All-Star Otto Lopez has posted a sub-600 OPS since the Midsummer Classic. However, the Marlins have made up for it somewhat with their pitching; although their bullpen has struggled in the last several weeks, sporting a 4.83 ERA to start the second half of the season, their starters have recorded a sub-3 mark. Pérez, Ryan Gusto, Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, and Tyler Phillips all have a sub-4 ERA and at least 14 starts, with Alcantara — the league leader in innings pitched — plausibly in line to receive Cy Young Award votes after winning the award in 2022 if Miami sneaks into the playoffs. The Marlins’ reworked bullpen hasn’t been great, as Cade Gibson (who has a 5.67 ERA) has probably thrown too many innings for his quality, but trade deadline acquisition Victor Vodnik has shown some flashes.
In all likelihood, Kansas City’s run will be too little, too late. The Royals fell to 49-73 in mid-August, but they went on a run of 13 wins in 15 games before dropping two in a row. While Kansas City still trails the final Wild Card spot by 8.5 games, it’s a team nobody will want to face right now, given that it finished August with the fifth-highest OPS. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the American League in WAR, Jac Caglianone has made a second-year leap (including a .333/.361/.574 slash line since the All-Star break), and utilityman Tyler Tolbert has quietly maintained an OPS over .800. The Royals have also had an above-average pitching staff to start the second half of the season, as both their rotation and their bullpen have improved by more than 0.7 runs of ERA from the first half of the season to the second. Cameron, Michael Wacha, and Randy Dobnak have been a capable top three, and Nate Pearson and José Cuas have stabilized what had been arguably baseball’s shakiest bullpen. That’s not to mention 38-year-old Craig Kimbrel, who is now playing for his third team in 2026 alone and the 12th of his career, recording 6.1 scoreless innings across six appearances.
Pérez can be inconsistent from start to start, but he’s a pretty good pitcher overall. He struggled in his most recent start, giving up five runs in three innings against the Washington Nationals on August 28, but that ended a 13-start stretch in which he’d allowed one or fewer earned runs 10 times and pitched to a 1.67 ERA. Overall, Pérez ranks in the 66th percentile in expected ERA and the 76th in pitching run value. He’s especially thrived at fooling batters, ranking in the top three deciles in chase, whiff, and strikeout rate, which could present Kansas City’s contact-oriented lineup with more problems than usual. Plus, the Royals aren’t well-suited to take advantage of his biggest weakness, his 23rd-percentile walk rate, as they’ve drawn the fifth-fewest free passes. He has been prone to the occasional hard contact, ranking in the 19th percentile in barrel rate and the 44th percentile in hard-hit rate, and Kansas City ranks third in the latter stat, but I still trust his track record overall. He should be in line for a solid outing, although he’ll have to buck negative location splits, as his ERA is more than a run higher on the road and the Royals have had baseball’s seventh-best road offense this season.
Cameron has had a similarly hot second half of the season. Although he gave up seven earned runs in his first start after the All-Star break, he has settled in remarkably well, pitching to a 1.29 ERA across his last seven starts and emerging entirely without damage in four of them. That stretch also included a one-hit shutout on August 16. Advanced numbers suggest that Cameron’s true ability lies somewhere in between his recent form and his mediocre first half of the season, as he owns a 44th-percentile xERA (4.12). To be fair, Cameron only ranks above the league median in two Statcast categories (whiff rate and walk rate), and Miami both earns free passes and whiffs at about a league-average rate. However, Cameron also doesn’t have many notable weaknesses, as he ranks in the 35th percentile or higher in every single Statcast category, and the Marlins aren’t well-suited to take advantage of his struggles to keep the ball down. Like Pérez, he’ll have to overcome unfavorable location splits, as his ERA is more than a full run higher at home.
Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (-105)
As strong as Cameron’s form has been as of late, I just trust Pérez a little bit more, and Miami is a slightly better team overall. Plus, as bad as the Marlins’ bullpen has been, Kansas City’s relievers are no better.
Strong Lean: Under 9 (-115)
Neither of these offenses inspires quite enough confidence to suggest that the game will go over the total, especially given both pitchers’ strong overall form. The Royals are capable of 13-run outbursts like they put up against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 27, but they’re equally capable of quiet nights, and Miami hasn’t scored more than six runs in a game since August 16.
More MLB Content
Read more MLB content at DraftKings Network:
- MLB Weather Today (September 2): Forecast, Rain, and Wind for All 15 Games
- Best MLB BvP Matchups Today 9/2/26
- Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies prediction, pick for Wednesday 9/2/26
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction, pick for Wednesday 9/2/26
Tail these bets and more in the DK Network MLB Dugout Betting Group here!
