If you’ve ever wondered what it means when a pitcher “shoves” in a start, look no further than Gavin Williams’ performance in the opening game of this series. Seven innings, zero earned runs, and a career-high 13 strikeouts. All in a 6-1 win for the Guardians.
If the Jays don’t want to fall to 3.5 games back of Cleveland on Wednesday, they’ll need their ace to do a little “shoving” of his own.
Can Dylan Cease keep Toronto in the AL Wild Card hunt? Let’s dive into this crucial tilt in the standings and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians prediction, preview
While he’d never admit it, Dylan Cease is actually pitching for two things on Wednesday: The Jays’ postseason hopes and his continuing chance at securing the AL Cy Young Award. It’s hard to argue with his candidacy. Among qualified pitchers in MLB as a whole, Cease ranks fourth in ERA (2.33), second in xERA (2.68), third in FIP (2.43) and second in strikeout rate (36.1%). Put it all together, and you’ve got a guy that’s made 25 starts and pitched to a 5.1 fWAR. Not too shabby. The key to the RHP’s success in 2026 has been the emergence of his change-up, an offering that has limited opponents to a .107 average while generating an eye-popping 50.7% whiff rate. It’s a fun new weapon for Cease to use against left-handed batters, which will certainly come in handy this evening, as Cleveland has an army of LHBs and switch-hitters.
This will actually be a very interesting matchup for Cease for a lot of reasons. The Guardians have been the definition of a league-average lineup since the All-Star break, clocking in, right on the nose, with a 100 wRC+. This isn’t a roster that possesses a lot of power, as evidenced by its 27th-ranked .127 ISO in that same span of time, but that’s not to suggest there aren’t things that Cleveland does do at an elite level. The club’s 19.0% strikeout rate is the fifth-lowest mark in MLB in the second-half, while an 89.7% zone contact rate ranks third. Cease’s 99th percentile strikeout rate is his superpower. Will he be able to generate enough swings and misses to offset this walks on Wednesday?
Another thing worth noting in this contest is that Cease is not the only starter toeing the rubber in amazing form. While far fewer baseball fans know the name Joey Cantillo, the left-hander has been a huge reason for Cleveland’s recent turn-around. Heck, since June 13, a stretch of 14 outings for Cantillo, the 26-year-old sports a 2.86 ERA. Does Cease happen to have the league’s lowest qualified ERA in that 10-week window? He sure does, registering a electric 1.86 figure. Still, it’s not like Cantillo has been all that far off the All-Star’s pace. Just something to keep in mind as he takes on a Jays’ lineup that sits dead-last in ISO (.135) and expected wOBA (.295) for 2026 as a whole.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-131)
Dylan Cease and Joey Cantillo have been among the best starters in the American League since mid-June. On top of that, the Guardians rank 29th in the league in expected wOBA (.304), while the Jays rank 30th (.295). These are not two lineups that are all that dangerous.
Strong Lean: Dylan Cease 7+ Strikeouts (-106)
Cleveland doesn’t strikeout a ton, but I think Cease might be matchup proof. Even putting aside a 99th percentile strikeout rate (36.1%) and a 96th percentile whiff rate (34.2%), Cease has simply racked up at least seven strikeouts in 19 straight starts. How is this prop so close to even money?
