On Monday night, the Baltimore Orioles’ Colton Cowser made arguably the catch of the season, robbing a potential walk-off home run to secure a 2-1 win over the Colorado Rockies. However, the Rockies got redemption last night, picking up a 4-2 win.
The rubber match is set to begin this afternoon at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Colorado. Trevor Rogers will get the start for the Orioles, and the Rockies will counter with Tomoyuki Sugano.
Let’s break down this high-altitude affair with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
- Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-107): Baltimore hasn’t yet picked up a multi-run win this series, but Rogers (even after a rough start last week) has a huge advantage over Sugano in the starting pitching matchup.
- Trevor Rogers 6+ Strikeouts (+122): Rogers had low strikeout numbers at the start of the season, which are still affecting his lines today, but seven six-strikeout games in eight starts since the All-Star break makes this feel pretty safe.
Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview
Although a series loss against Colorado certainly wouldn’t be ideal, especially with seven straight home games against teams currently in a playoff position coming later this week, Baltimore has done enough to keep itself within striking distance of the postseason at 69-70. More than most teams on the fringes of the playoff picture, the Orioles are trending in the right direction, going 23-19 since the All-Star break despite actually posting baseball’s 10th-lowest OPS in that span. With Pete Alonso clicking and Blaze Alexander healthy again, Baltimore has a realistic pathway towards improving its offense. The Orioles have also found their bullpen, as their relievers have posted a 3.10 ERA since the Midsummer Classic. Trade deadline acquisition Alex Hoppe was one of the worst relievers in baseball with the Seattle Mariners but has been one of the best in Baltimore, and Josh Walker hasn’t given up a run since August 2. Trading away Tyler Wells at the deadline clearly hasn’t hurt too much. If Hoppe and Walker keep performing and Alonso keeps raking, the Orioles could make some noise against the AL East winner if they sneak into the postseason.
On the other hand, the Rockies certainly won’t participate in the postseason, but one season after finishing with 119 losses, they might well end their streak of 100-loss seasons at three. Colorado has made some genuine strides, recording baseball’s fourth-best offense for the season as a whole and its 11th-best since the All-Star break. Hunter Goodman might be baseball’s best offensive catcher, especially with Cal Raleigh suffering through a season-long slump, and although Cole Carrigg’s production has dipped as of late, he, TJ Rumfield, and Zac Veen have still had strong rookie seasons overall. Furthermore, the Rockies’ bullpen has made some strides, posting a sub-4 ERA in each of July and August, as Jordan Romano hasn’t allowed a run since August 4, Brennan Bernardino has a 1.59 mark since the Midsummer Classic, and trade deadline acquisitions Mark Manfredi and Nick Frasso have been solid. The issue is that Colorado’s starters have recorded an ERA above 6 for the season as a whole, with Sugano the regular starter with the lowest ERA (5.23). That’s been an issue for a while; the last season in which the team’s starters did not post the highest ERA was 2022.
Rogers is coming off of a poor start, ending what had been a run of Cy Young-level form from the man who finished ninth in voting for that award last season. In a 14-start stretch between June 4 and August 21, Rogers pitched to a 2.57 ERA, but he struggled last Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals, conceding six earned runs in five innings to raise his season-long mark to 4.38. For the season, he grades out as a slightly above-average hurler, owning a 59th-percentile expected ERA and 58th-percentile pitching run value. Although he ranks in just the 37th percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, the Rockies both whiff and strike out relatively frequently. Furthermore, he’s been elite at both incentivizing chases and avoiding walks, exacerbating two of Colorado’s biggest weaknesses. He’s also been at least average at minimizing hard contact, ranking in the 50th percentile or higher in each of hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity, and the Rockies rank among the league’s bottom five in all three of those stats. His 38th-percentile ground ball rate and 4.53 road ERA might hurt him slightly at Coors Field, especially since Colorado owns baseball’s fifth-best home offense, but he has all the tools to put together a reasonably effective outing overall.
Sugano, on the other hand, might not be in line for a bounce-back. The Japanese right-hander had been rather effective for much of the season, racking up 12 wins, but as of late, he’s struggled, posting an ERA north of 6 since the All-Star break. In fact, Sugano has allowed at least five earned runs in each of his last three starts. His advanced statistical profile is a sea of blue; he ranks in only the first percentile in both expected ERA and pitching run value, and while he might be able to get away with it slightly against a boom-or-bust Baltimore offense, a third-percentile whiff rate and second-percentile strikeout rate is never ideal. The Orioles are also well-suited to combat his only strength, as he owns a 94th-percentile walk rate and they’ve drawn the third-most free passes. Like most of his teammates, Sugano has been hit hard, ranking in the bottom octile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, and Baltimore leads the league in the latter two categories. He has been slightly better at Coors Field, but it’s hard to believe that his former Orioles teammates won’t get to him.
Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-107)
The Rockies have lost by multiple runs in four of Sugano’s last five starts, as his raw numbers have finally caught up with his Statcast profile, and Rogers is a better-than-average starter despite struggling in his latest start.
Strong Lean: Trevor Rogers 6+ Strikeouts (+122)
Rogers’ strikeout props always carry good value; in eight starts since the All-Star break, he’s reached the six-K threshold seven times, and Colorado has been merely average at strikeout avoidance.
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