We’ve entered the final month of the regular season, and more and more, it seems like the final Wild Card spot in the National League is going to come down to either the Padres or the Diamondbacks.
San Diego comes into Wednesday’s action a half-game up on Arizona, so every contest is of the utmost importance — including this afternoon’s affair in Cincinnati against the Reds.
The Padres have lost four of their last five. Can they get back on track in a 12:40 p.m. ET matinee? Let’s dive into this tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Reds prediction, preview
To this point, the most disappointing trade deadline addition across the league might be Casey Mize. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2018, Mize was having a very nice campaign in his walk-year in Detroit, nice enough that his price tag for the Padres on August 3 was top prospect Kash Mayfield. I’m getting the impression that San Diego’s front office might be regretting that decision. Mize has made five starts for the Padres, and suddenly the right-hander is in possession of a bloated 6.26 ERA and a 6.70 FIP. There aren’t any redeeming qualities when you take a look under the hood, either. Mize’s strikeout rate has shrunk all way down to 10.5%, while he’s surrendering 2.35 opponent home runs per nine thanks to a robust 12.9% opponent barrel rate. If anything, he’s just lucky that five of the seven runs he allowed in his last outing were considered unearned.
Things won’t get any easier for Mize on Wednesday. At least not on paper. While the Reds have fallen out of the playoff race entirely in recent weeks, the club’s offense has been producing of late. In fact, over the past 14 days, Cincinnati is tied for the second-most home runs in the sport (20), which means the team also ranks fifth in ISO (.174), seventh in wOBA (.329) and eighth in wRC+ (105). Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz have been expectedly great in this span of time, but it’s been rookie Hector Rodriguez that’s really led the way out of the leadoff spot. Currently the franchise’s No. 4 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Rodriguez is slashing .359/.419/.718 with a 207 wRC+ in his last 43 plate appearances. How could you ask for more?
Speaking of getting the call-up from Triple-A, Brandon Williamson will take the mound for Cincinnati in this rubber match, making his first start with the big club since all the way back on April 29. Williamson missed four months due to a shoulder injury, yet he should be fully built up after making six rehab appearances throughout August. It’s a chance at a fresh start for the left-hander, as things didn’t quite go as planned at the beginning of 2026. Across six outings and 28.0 innings, Williamson struggled to an ugly 6.11 ERA with a 6.81 xERA. The 28-year-old hasn’t had anything resembling a healthy or full season at the MLB level dating back to his rookie campaign in 2023. It’s been a rough go.
Padres vs. Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Casey Mize Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-103)
Mize has one strikeout in his last two starts combined. One! The larger sample of 2026 says this prop isn’t that high, but it’s also one he’s failed to exceed in five of his last six starts — a stretch where his strikeout rate is an anemic 11.1%. The Reds’ bats are hot. He might not even work that deep on Wednesday.
