Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night-half of Wednesday’s slate: Jonathan Aranda and Riley Greene.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda | +487 | Justin Hagenman has only thrown 23.2 innings at the MLB level. However, the 49 LHBs that Hagenman faced in that cup of coffee combined to slash .327/.327/.571 with a 14.6% barrel rate and a 53.7% hard hit rate. Home runs have also been an issue for the RHP in the minors the past few years. It all sets up for Aranda, the Rays’ best left-handed bat, to have a big night. |
| Riley Greene | +362 | Greene is only one game removed from being reinstated from the IL, but he’s got a tasty matchup against Dean Kremer on Wednesday. The former top prospect is slashing .289/.372/.493 with a .204 ISO and a 139 wRC+ versus RHPs in 2026. Meanwhile, Kremer has struggled with the long ball throughout 2026, giving up 2.15 opponent home runs per nine. That includes a home run in each of his past three outings. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Jonathan Aranda 1+ Home Run (+487)
Look, we don’t know much about Justin Hagenman. Well, we at least don’t have a lot of info on the right-hander at the MLB level. Hagenman’s pitched at Triple-A for the Dodgers, Red Sox and Mets since 2022, with his lone action in the big leagues coming in 2025. Over nine appearances (one start), the journeyman threw 23.2 innings for New York. He posted a 4.56 ERA. He was, for the most part, fine. However, it was clear in that small sample that LHBs see Hagenman pretty damn well. The 49 left-handed batters that Hagenman faced combined to slash .327/.327/.571 with a 14.6% barrel rate and a 53.7% hard hit rate. Long balls have been an issue for the 29-year-old in the minors, too. Hagenman surrendered 1.69 per nine in 2025 in Syracuse, and 2.06 per nine in 2024 with Worcester. Aranda is the best lefty that the Rays roster. I like his chances of doing some damage in a plus-matchup.
Riley Greene 1+ Home Run (+362)
Greene is only one game removed from being reinstated from the IL, but he’s got a tasty matchup against Dean Kremer on Wednesday night. In general, you want to be backing Greene when he and the Tigers are facing an RHP, as the former top prospect is slashing .289/.372/.493 with a .204 ISO and a 139 wRC+ within the split. However, let’s not pretend that Kremer’s presence doesn’t provide more value than simply his handedness. The veteran has struggled with the long ball throughout 2026, giving up 2.15 opponent home runs per nine — one of 10 pitchers with 50-plus innings thrown that’s surrendering at least 2.00 per nine. Things had gotten slightly better since a trade to the Twins, yet that trend has ended, as Kremer’s served up a homer in each of his last three outings.
