Aces are set to take the mound this evening at PNC Park. Logan Webb starts for the Giants, while Paul Skenes will get the nod for Pittsburgh. Can the Giants (57-81) pull off a road upset against the Pirates (67-71) on Tuesday night?
The Pirates are favorites (-158) over the Giants; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between San Francisco and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Pirates pick, best bet today
- Giants vs. Pirates under 7.5 runs (-106): Pittsburgh is a mess at the plate in recent weeks, which bodes well for Webb. The same can also be said for the visiting Giants coming into this one. Skenes is more than capable of silencing San Fracisco’s mediocre bats on Tuesday.
Giants vs. Pirates prediction, preview
There’s not much to get excited about for San Francisco this season. With that being said, Logan Webb is still an anchor for this pitching staff. Through 147.2 innings pitched (24 starts), he’s notched a 3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 118 strikeouts (7.2 K/9). The right-hander has been consistent over the past few weeks as well. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in five of his previous six appearances. Despite middling strikeout stuff, the 29-year-old is one of the game’s best at inducing weak contact. An 88th percentile ground ball rate (51.5%) and 79th percentile barrel rate (5.7%) are complimented by elite command (2.2 BB/9).
On paper, the Pirates could pose some problems for Webb this evening. After all, the club is averaging the fifth-most runs per game in baseball this season (4.85). However, key bats such as Konnor Griffin (finger) and Ryan O’Hearn (quad) remain on the injured list. To make matters worse, this group has looked terrible in recent weeks. Pittsburgh has scored a National League-worst 27 runs over its previous ten contests. Since August 1st, key contributors such as Brandon Lowe (.708 OPS), Esmerlyn Valdez (.662 OPS) and Bryan Reynolds (.617 OPS) have been far less effective.
The home team will counter with an ace of their own in Paul Skenes. It’s fair to say that the righty hasn’t been at his best for most of 2026. Still, this remains one of the most talented arms on Earth. Over 145.0 innings (27 starts), he’s put up a 3.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 175 strikeouts (10.9 K/9). During his last time out, Skenes tossed six scoreless innings against the Padres. The righty sits inside the 75th percentile or better in most advanced metrics. That includes xERA (3.12), xBA (.213), and strikeout rate (29.5%). If there’s any slight weakness, it’s a tendency to give up quality contact.
Fortunately for Skenes, Tuesday’s opponent isn’t exactly poised to capitalize on any mistakes. The Giants are one of baseball’s worst offenses, especially since their trade deadline fire sale in early August. San Francisco has scored 106 runs since August 1st, seventh-worst in the majors during that time. As a unit, the team has posted below-average marks in barrel rate (7.6%), hard-hit rate (37.6%) and average exit velocity (88.7 MPH). The Giants are only averaging 4.06 runs per game on the road, sixth-worst in the league.
Best Bet: Giants vs. Pirates under 7.5 runs (-106)
Skenes, despite a handful of slip-ups, isn’t someone I’m willing to bet against tonight. With that being said, Pittsburgh hasn’t given its ace much in the way of run support this season. Racking up runs won’t be easy on Tuesday against an arm of Webb’s caliber. Expect both starters to hold their own in a pitcher’s duel at PNC Park.
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