After a hot stretch right after the All-Star break, the San Diego Padres have spent most of the last month in a playoff position in the NL. However, at this point in the season, every single game matters, and the Padres just ran up against the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays and got swept, knocking them out of playoff positioning.
They’ll have to hope to get back into it with a three-game road series this week against the Cincinnati Reds, who are out of playoff position and are playing meaningless baseball at this point.
Tonight’s series opener is set to begin at 6:40 p.m. ET. San Diego will turn to Michael King, and Brady Singer will take the mound for Cincinnati.
Let’s break down this potentially Wild Card-influencing matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds Best Bets
- Over 9 (-103): Given that the Reds’ starter, Singer, has an ERA north of 5 in his last six starts and their bullpen has an ERA north of 5 this month, it’s hard to imagine this game not going over the total.
- Fernando Tatís Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-128): Quite simply, taking a batter who has an OPS over .900 for the month against a pitcher who’s allowed just an 11th-percentile expected batting average seems like a prescient thing to do.
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds prediction, preview
Given that the Padres are 24-17 since the All-Star break and that there’s hardly any shame in losing by one run on two consecutive nights to the best team in the AL, it still seems likely that they’ll ultimately qualify for the postseason. However, the stakes are high at this point in the season, and their playoff chances have dropped from 68.9% on August 22 to 47.0% today. For the month, San Diego has had the 13th-highest OPS in baseball, but that has dipped to the third-worst over the last seven days. Its offensive depth just hasn’t been there beyond Ty France, especially with Luis Rengifo now out indefinitely with a knee sprain. The Padres have still had among the best pitching staffs in baseball this month, as four of their six primary relievers with at least 50 innings pitched this season have sub-3 ERA’s and trade deadline acquisition Robbie Ray has been solid in his five starts with the team. Fellow midseason arrival Casey Mize has been more disappointing, but as long as closer Mason Miller is on the roster and firing the ball well, all San Diego needs to do is enter the ninth inning with a lead of any kind and it’s almost guaranteed to win.
The Reds have led the division for 19 days this season, but their run came too early in the season, and despite a 22-20 record since the All-Star break overall, poor stretches in May and June and a mediocre August have done them in. For the month, Cincinnati has had baseball’s ninth-worst offense, and despite Sal Stewart’s leading all of baseball in RBI’s as a rookie, the Reds simply have too many black holes offensively (Matt McLain, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Noelvi Marté, and TJ Friedl are all semi-regular players currently under the Mendoza Line, although Hayes is currently injured and Marté is in the minors). Additionally, Cincinnati has posted the fourth-highest ERA this month, as both its rotation and bullpen have posted an ERA north of 5. Even Chase Burns, who will likely get some Cy Young Award votes, had a blow-up last Monday, and Burns and reliever Brock Burke are the only pitchers on the roster with multiple innings pitched and a sub-3 ERA. Tejay Antone had been part of that group for most of the season, but he’s had a disastrous month, pitching to a 10.61 ERA across 9.1 innings.
King, who began his career as a reliever, has produced his third consecutive solid season as a starter, recording a 3.23 ERA in 27 starts. He’s given up three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his last 10 starts, pitching to a 2.72 ERA across that span. However, advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten a bit lucky; even in that hot stretch, his 4.24 FIP has been significantly higher than his ERA, and for the season, he sports just a 36th-percentile xERA. Additionally, King ranks below the league median in both strikeout rate and walk rate, although the Reds (who have struck out the second-most times this month) aren’t well-suited to take advantage of that. Additionally, King’s barrel rate sits in just the 33rd percentile, and Cincinnati has found the barrel at the second-highest rate this season. He does rank in the top quintile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, somewhat mitigating the Reds’ strengths in those areas, but it’s definitely possible that Cincinnati could get to him if it finds the launch-angle sweet spot. King has been somewhat worse on the road, though still decent, and the Reds have performed nearly identically whether at home or on the road.
King should still have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Singer, who has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last seven starts to see his season ERA rise from 4.56 to 4.72. This season, Singer sports just a 12th-percentile xERA and an 11th-percentile xBA, ranking in only the third percentile overall in pitching run value. On the bright side, the sinkerballer has a 66th-percentile walk rate, an asset against a Padres team that ranks above the league average in that stat, but he also generates chases at a bottom-quartile clip, mitigating one of San Diego’s weaknesses. Additionally, Singer has been extremely prone to hard hits, with a bottom-quartile barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, and despite a disappointing season overall, the Padres still roster some pretty powerful bats. The location splits are mixed, although they should favor the hurler overall; Singer has recorded an ERA nearly two runs lower at home, but San Diego’s OPS is 34 points higher on the road.
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-103)
As much as I don’t trust the Padres’ offense right now, especially over the last week or so, three of San Diego’s last five games and four of Cincinnati’s last five have gone over the total. It’ll be hard for the Reds to keep the game under the total if Singer gives up at least three earned runs.
Strong Lean: Fernando Tatís Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-128)
Tatís has been seeing the ball well over the last few weeks, posting a .292/.365/.615 slash line across his last 17 games. Singer likes to throw sinkers to fellow righties, and he has a .306 batting average against right-handed sinkers.
More MLB Content
Read more MLB content at DraftKings Network:
- Top MLB Home Run Props for Monday 8/31/26
- MLB DFS Picks: Starting Pitcher Rankings for Monday 8/31/26
- San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves prediction, pick for Monday 8/31/26
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners prediction, pick for MLB on Monday 8/31/26
Tail these bets and more in the DK Network MLB Dugout Betting Group here!
