Boston spent Sunday buried beneath a 16-1 loss, an ugly prelude to a matchup that still favors the Red Sox tonight despite the obvious morale torpedo. Seattle reaches Fenway after four consecutive losses—nothing new for them—and a 25-4 aggregate series beating, including a one-hit surrender Sunday. The Mariners have produced a pathetic 77 wRC+ across two weeks, with a .190/.284/.309 line and a 28.3% strikeout rate, and it looks that bad. Somehow, their seven-game numbers have thinned further: a .160 average, .304 slugging percentage, and baseball-worst 31.7% strikeout rate. Boston, on the other hand, has momentum even in defeat. It carries a 115 wRC+ over the last fortnight, while Roman Anthony and Trevor Story returned Sunday. Both collected two hits and a double. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Payton Tolle can make Seattle’s offensive decay feel a heck of a lot worse tonight. He has worked 125⅓ innings with a 3.09 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 2.70 xERA, and 21.0% K/BB rate in his first full season of service. In the second half, Tolle’s posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 30⅓ innings, striking out 38 and walking eight. His 96.1 mph four-seamer has produced a .255 xwOBA, 29.4% whiff rate, and 33.3% strikeout rate. He spins his curveball only 9.4% of the time, yet hitters have whiffed on it 44.3% of the time. Seattle owns an 87 wRC+, .123 ISO, and 24.5% strikeout rate against lefties. And, to make matters worse, handedness won’t matter: Tolle has struck out 31.4% of the right-handed hitters he’s faced.
George Kirby rediscovered himself against Philadelphia, which is one of the few bright spots out there in the PNW, Marinerswise. He worked 7⅔ innings, allowed one run, and generated 21 whiffs with a 49% chase rate. His four-seamer averaged a season-best 97.9 mph. The previous two starts saw him allow 17 hits, 11 earned runs, five walks, and five strikeouts. It’s been a turbulent August: a 4.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and modest 19-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the whole. Kirby’s 3.63 FIP and 3.88 xERA remain considerably stronger than his 4.02 ERA, which we love, although pitching on the road has treated him brutally. He has a 5.19 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and .882 OPS allowed across 60⅔ away-game innings. That’s the stat I can’t get past tonight.
Not to mention, Boston’s returning left-handed bats can find the soft portion of Kirby’s arsenal. It gets hit pretty hard in aggregate, honestly. His sweeper has held hitters to a .274 xwOBA, but his curveball has allowed a .426 average and .617 slugging percentage. The changeup carries a .517 xSLG. Lefties have produced a .775 OPS with an 18.7% strikeout rate against him. Boston’s offense, in perhaps its best form of the season—structurally and in terms of material results—and should find its sweet spots with enough consistency to turn the lineup over, force some crooked numbers on the Fenway scoreboard.
Mariners vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Seattle still owns two hitters capable of disturbing Tolle. Randy Arozarena has a 142 wRC+ against lefties, and Cal Raleigh has blasted six homers since Aug. 17, averaging a 97.2 mph exit velo with a 66.7% hard-hit rate. His barrels have mawed 38.1% of his recent batted balls. Tolle, however, remains an awful opponent even for Big Dumper’s revitalized swing. Raleigh has a .558 OPS and 35.8% strikeout rate against lefties, while Tolle’s specialty is suppressing right-handed power. And, you may ask: Where is the brightest second-half trident? Julio Rodríguez has hit .143/.172/.250 over seven games and struck out eleven times in 28 at-bats. Seattle’s concentrated sweet-spot contact remains surrounded by too many empty plate appearances. Tolle should mow them down.
Boston’s 3.10 bullpen ERA and 1.16 WHIP provide another meaningful advantage over Seattle, who’re rocking a 4.42 and 1.37 in the same stats, respectively. Sunday’s blowout consumed Jovani Moran and Zack Weissert, but Boston has Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, Erik Miller, and Tyron Guerrero available. Those four relievers carry ERAs no higher than 2.60. Seattle, on the other hand, used Gabe Speier, Seranthony Domínguez, and Nick Davila during its latest loss. It’s Boston’s game.
Best bet: Red Sox ML (-162).
Projected score: Red Sox 4, Mariners 2.
Best bet: Red Sox (-160) vs. Mariners
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