Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s substantial slate: Francisco Lindor, Jackson Merrill and Gunnar Henderson.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | +467 | In the shortstop’s past 176 plate appearances, he’s managed an .818 OPS and a .226 ISO with a 128 wRC+. That stretch includes hitting his 14th home run of the season in Sunday’s loss to the Astros. Meanwhile, Ian Seymour has surrendered 2.44 opponent long balls per nine in his 11 starts. |
| Jackson Merrill | +317 | Merrill’s been a different man in the batter’s box since coming back from the All-Star break, as the 23-year-old has slashed .283/.322/.572 with 12 home runs and a .289 ISO. In fact, Merrill’s dozen long balls rank as the second-most in baseball within the span. Now he’ll face Brady Singer at Great American Ball Park. Singer’s conceding a hefty 2.00 per nine to opposing LHBs. |
| Gunnar Henderson | +357 | The Orioles will be facing struggling right-hander Tanner Gordon, who owns a third percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.1) so far in 2026. Gordon’s also giving up 3.25 home runs per nine to LHBs he’s faced at Coors Field. Henderson, a lefty, hit a pair of homers on Sunday. He just needs one this evening for this prop to hit. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Francisco Lindor 1+ Home Run (+467)
It’s been an odd, injury-impacted season for Francisco Lindor, but things have certainly turned a corner since the All-Star break. In the shortstop’s past 176 plate appearances, he’s managed an .818 OPS and a .226 ISO with a 128 wRC+. That stretch includes hitting his 14th home run of the season in Sunday’s loss to the Astros. Now, Lindor will look to carry the momentum over to Monday, when he and the Mets will be opposed by Ian Seymour and the Rays. Seymour’s been quite useful for Tampa in 2026, even moving from the bullpen to the team’s rotation in mid-June. However, that role magnified the lefty’s biggest flaw: His inability to keep the ball in the park. In his 11 starts this season, Seymour has surrendered 2.44 opponent long balls per nine.
Jackson Merrill 1+ Home Run (+317)
It looks like Jackson Merrill has finally shaken off that sophomore slump — and that other slump that ruins the first-half of your third season, too. Just like the aforementioned Lindor, Merrill’s been a different man in the batter’s box since coming back from the All-Star break, as the 23-year-old has slashed .283/.322/.572 with 12 home runs and a .289 ISO. In fact, Merrill’s dozen long balls rank as the second-most in baseball within the span, trailing only likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. Pretty good company. This evening, Merrill will be looking for his 23rd home run of 2026 against Brady Singer at Great American Ball Park. Singer’s struggled with homers all year long, conceding a hefty 2.00 per nine to opposing LHBs. Need I say more?
Gunnar Henderson 1+ Home Run (+357)
If Gunnar Henderson can’t hit a home run tonight, he might truly be broken. Not only will the Orioles be in Colorado in the altitude, but they’ll be facing struggling right-hander Tanner Gordon, who owns a third percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.1) so far in 2026. Gordon’s faced 123 left-handed batters at Coors Field this season, those hitters have combined to slash .328/.358/.690. Gordon is surrendering a jaw-dropping 3.25 home runs per nine in that specific scenario. As such, every LHB on Baltimore’s roster should be licking their chops at the thought of Monday’s matchup. To his credit, Henderson hit a pair of homers on Sunday. He just needs one this evening for this prop to hit.
