The story of the 2025 MLB postseason will always be Game 7 of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays, but Game 7 of the ALCS between the Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners should not be lost in the shuffle. That game had a flair for the dramatic, from George Springer’s three-run homer off of Eduardo Bazardo in the seventh inning to turn around a 3-1 game to Julio Rodríguez flailing at three consecutive balls with MVP candidate Cal Raleigh on deck and the chance to tie the game.
10 months later, the teams begin another series at the Rogers Centre, but this one carries considerably lower stakes, given that neither team is likely to make the postseason.
Tonight’s series opener is set to begin at 7:15 p.m. ET. Emerson Hancock will start for Seattle, and Toronto will turn to Cy Young Award candidate Dylan Cease.
Let’s break down this diminished rematch with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets
- Seattle Mariners +0.5 1st 5 Innings (-115): I don’t think Hancock is quite on the same tier as Cease, but given his 2.49 road ERA this season and Cease’s 3.00 mark, it’s close enough that I’m willing to bank on a tied game through five innings.
- Dylan Cease 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-107): Cease has pitched to a sub-2 ERA since the start of June, allowing one or fewer earned runs in six of his last nine starts. I’m not sure if this Mariners team is good enough to take advantage of his propensity to walk batters.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays prediction, preview
Despite sporting the most talented roster in the AL West on paper, the Mariners have not taken advantage of its wide-open nature, going just 16-21 after the All-Star break to remain three games behind the Houston Astros at 64-70. For the season, no team has had a worse offense than Seattle, although it’s improved in August…to baseball’s sixth-worst mark. Raleigh has had arguably the most stunning season-to-season fall-off in league history, as he’s still hitting just .167 despite mashing mashing five homers in the last week, and basically only Randy Arozarena has exceeded expectations. Even the Mariners’ pitching staff, which is usually an asset because T-Mobile Park is one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly venues, has been quite poor, posting the second-highest ERA this month. Seattle’s bullpen, in fact, has somehow posted a 7.90 mark this month, as even though Bazardo, Jose A. Ferrer, and Gabe Speier’s numbers look fine on the surface, trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez has struggled mightily and Michael Rucker gave up seven runs in 0.2 innings on Sunday.
The Blue Jays’ struggles are arguably even more befuddling, given that they came within four strikes of winning the World Series and are just 66-70, in dead last in the AL East. They didn’t lose any major personnel from last season’s pennant-winners except for Bo Bichette, who’s been poor for the New York Mets, and they dropped from the third-best offense to the third-worst. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t hit a homer at the Rogers Centre for more than a year, George Springer has looked every bit of his 36 years old after a renaissance season in 2025, and Daulton Varsho regressed so much he was shipped off at the trade deadline. Toronto has somewhat made up for it with a top-10 pitching staff, as Cease has been everything the Blue Jays possibly could’ve asked for, currently-injured Trey Yesavage has had a strong rookie season, and Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers have been two of baseball’s best relievers. The Blue Jays also took on the Paul Sewald and Simeon Woods Richardson reclamation projects, and, with the exception of a disastrous outing last night from Woods Richardson, they’ve actually turned out pretty well. They might be contenders with even a league-average offense.
Hancock has been arguably the Mariners’ most reliable pitcher this season. He and Logan Gilbert both have an identical 3.37 ERA, with Gilbert making one more start and throwing about 20 more innings, but Hancock has a 2.96 mark over the last two months, giving up no more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts across that span. However, Hancock’s advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten a bit lucky, as he sports a 3.86 expected ERA. Hancock’s biggest strength, his exceptional control, wouldn’t have been much of an issue against Toronto anyways, as the Blue Jays have drawn the second-fewest free passes this season as is, and he actually ranks in just the 27th percentile in chase rate, mitigating one of Toronto’s biggest weaknesses. Plus, he sports just a 37th-percentile whiff rate, and the Blue Jays have some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the league, putting pressure on a fielding unit that has been one of baseball’s worst this season. Still, at least his tendency to give up hard hits won’t hurt him against the softest-hitting team in baseball, and any pitcher with a 2.49 ERA on the road in 65.0 innings can be trusted to perform against Toronto.
I just expect Hancock to be out-dueled by Cease. He’s previously come close to winning the Cy Young Award, finishing second in 2022 and fourth in 2024, but with a 2.37 ERA and an AL-leading 209 strikeouts, this might be his best season yet, especially since he’s posted a sub-2 mark since the start of June. His Statcast profile is a sea of red, as he ranks in the top decile in pitching run value, fastball run value, breaking run value, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate and strikeout rate. He hasn’t been great at incentivizing chases or producing ground balls, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem against Seattle, which chases at the third-highest rate and does a below-average job getting the ball in the air. His only real issue is his 18th-percentile walk rate, and while the Mariners have walked the 10th-most times this month, they’ve also posted baseball’s fourth-worst OPS with runners on. Cease has been somewhat worse at home this season, posting a 3.03 ERA at the Rogers Centre, but I’d still expect a strong performance from him.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners +0.5 1st 5 Innings (-115)
Although Hancock’s road form is technically a little bit better than Cease’s home form, the advanced numbers unilaterally favor Cease, and both of these offenses are terrible. That makes the starting pitching matchup a wash overall.
Strong Lean: Dylan Cease 1 or Fewer Earned Runs Allowed (-107)
Cease has given up one or fewer earned runs in six of his last nine starts, including a seven-inning, three-hit, no-run effort against Seattle at T-Mobile Park on July 3. While Rogers Centre is more hitter-friendly, it’s more neutral than a true hitter’s park.
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