For a long time in the NL playoff race, it didn’t look like the Cubs had to do much to keep their seat. They were “locked” into the No. 1 Wild Card seed.
However, after five losses in its last seven games, Chicago is suddenly leaving itself open for disaster, with the Phillies, Padres and even the Diamondbacks in hot pursuit.
Can the Cubs right in ship against the Reds at Wrigley? Let’s dive into this matinee contest and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Aside from one horrendous start against the Cardinals, it would be hard to ask for more from David Peterson in his Cubs tenure. In fact, across his last eight appearances, Peterson has pitched to a sterling 2.20 ERA over 41.0 innings of work. Could the walk rate be a little lower? Sure. Could the strikeout rate be a little higher? Of course. But all in all, Peterson’s been a much needed boost to a Chicago rotation that has had to be rebuilt on the fly in 2026. He was well worth the cost of a middling High-A prospect, that’s for sure. It’s a trade the Cubs make 100 times out of 100.
Specific to Friday, it would appear that Peterson has a relatively soft matchup to keep his success going. The Reds have been floundering in the month of August, ranking dead-last in batting average (.210) and OBP (.288), while also sitting 28th in the league in wRC+ (79). This is a lineup that is missing the surprisingly effective Nathaniel Lowe, who was dealt to Cleveland at the trade deadline. The fact that Spencer Steer (wrist) is on the IL doesn’t help, either. Somewhat ironically, the only Reds bat with a wRC+ above 110 since August 1 is Eugenio Suarez (134), and he was placed on waivers earlier this week. This organization remains an absolute mess.
If we’re being honest, Cincinnati could use some more from its pitching staff, as well. Namely, some of the very notable draft picks not named Chase Burns — who has been incredible in 2026. I guess I’m mostly talking to Rhett Lowder. Formerly the seventh-overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder has underwhelmed in his rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.13 ERA and a 5.11 xERA over 107.0 innings. The RHP comes into today’s start with a ninth percentile whiff rate (19.1%) and a 17th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.5%). Giving up load contact and not consistently being able to miss bats isn’t a recommended strategy for surviving at the MLB level, especially when you have to make half your outings at Great American Ball Park.
Reds vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Total Bases (-128)
Lowder has struggled with LHBs all season long, conceding 1.55 home runs per nine and an 11.7% barrel rate within the split. Now he’ll have to face an MVP candidate at the top of the Cubs’ lineup. Good luck with that.
