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Prediction, pick for Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong at UFC Shanghai

Prediction, pick for Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong at UFC Shanghai

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By: Ryan Wohl

Former Bantamweight title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov is back to take on Song Yadong in the Main Event of UFC Shanghai. Nurmagomedov is currently on a two-fight winning streak, while Yadong is coming off a second-round submission over former UFC Flyweight Champion Deiveson Figueiredo. 

Check out my best bet below for Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night.

Method of Victory: Decision (-200)

Umar Nurmagomedov is Khabib’s cousin, Usman’s brother, and teammate of UFC Welterweight Champion Islam Makhachev. Nurmagomedov is 20-1 with nine finishes and is trying to work his way back to another title shot at 135 pounds. His first career loss came against former Bantamweight title holder Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311 in January 2025. Before that, Nurmagomedov started his MMA career with a perfect 18-0 record. 

Yadong is 4-2 in his previous six contests, with the two losses in that span coming against UFC Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan and former UFC Champion Sean O’Malley. Since November 2017, Yadong has competed in the UFC and has had 17 fights in the promotion while still 28 years old. Yadong is attempting to mount a two-fight winning streak for the first time since 2023. Although Yadong now trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, he is originally from China. Yadong is 3-0 in the UFC when fighting in his home country of China. Yadong’s previous victory against Figueiredo came in Macau.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Nurmagomedov is a -625 favorite with Yadong being the underdog at +455. This fight has an over/under of 4.5 rounds, with the over at -220 and the under at +170. Four of Yadong’s last five and Nurmagomedov’s previous five fights have gone to a decision. With that in mind, my favorite play is taking this fight to a decision at -200. Nurmagomedov has only had one win by knockout or submission in the last four years. 

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Ryan is a University of Arizona graduate and Philadelphia native. Since 2024, he has been a writer for DraftKings Network, primarily covering combat sports. He is a big Philly sports fan and loves to collect sneakers, as well.
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