The UFC’s return to Shanghai is almost here! Umar Nurmagomedov faces Song Yadong in a high-stakes five-round Bantamweight Main Event matchup. The Prelims begin at 3:00 a.m. ET with the Main Card starting at 6:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of this week’s UFC Fight Night.
Best Bets for UFC Fight: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song: Decision (-200): Although Song Yadong is a big underdog, he could prolong this fight if he finds success striking and with his takedown defense. Umar Nurmagomedov’s last five fights have gone to decisions, and four of Yadong’s previous five have gone to the judges’ scorecards, giving this bout a good chance of going the scheduled 25 minutes.
- Kai Asakura to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-175): Kai Asakura made a move to Bantamweight and unleashed the Rizin version of himself who has devastating knockout power. If Asakura comes out with a high output early in this fight, it is unlikely Aoriqileng will be able to keep up.
- Bilal Hasan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-135): Bilal Hasan is under the tutelage of former UFC Champion Demetrious Johnson and has all the tools to continue his undefeated streak in his UFC debut.
UFC Fight: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Best Bets Breakdown
Nurmagomedov vs. Song: Decision (-200)
Umar Nurmagomedov has won two consecutive fights after he suffered his first MMA loss to Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311 in January 2025. Nurmagomedov beat Mario Bautista and former UFC Flyweight Champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the last 10 months. Song Yadong also beat Figueiredo in his previous fight, but he picked up the victory by second-round submission. Yadong is 4-2 in his previous six contests and, at 28 years old, remains a top contender at 135 pounds.
If Umar Nurmagomedov wants to fulfill his dream of becoming a UFC Champion like his cousin Khabib and teammate Islam Makhachev, he needs a win over Yadong. Both fighters are 5’8″, while Nurmagomedov has the reach advantage (69″ vs. 67″). Yadong lands more significant strikes per minute (4.34 vs. 3.86), but Nurmagomedov has the edge in takedowns per 15 minutes (4.03 vs. 0.82).
In this contest, Nurmagomedov is a massive -625 favorite with Yadong being a +455 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. Since four of Yadong’s last five and Nurmagomedov’s previous five fights have gone to a decision, my favorite play is taking this fight to the judges’ scorecards at -200. Nurmagomedov has only had one win by knockout or submission in the last four years.
Kai Asakura to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-175)
Kai Asakura entered the UFC with a ton of hype in 2024 as a former Rizin Champion, but he lost his first two fights in the promotion. In May, Asakura’s talent was on display as he scored a first-round knockout over Cameron Smotherman. Now he faces Aoriqileng, who is coming off a knockout loss to Cody Haddon.
When Asakura is in a striking matchup and is aggressive, he is tough to beat because he has game-changing power. Asakura’s previous three victories and eight of his last 10 wins have come by knockout. That is why I’m taking him at -175 to win by KO/TKO/DQ against Aoriqileng.
Bilal Hasan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
Bilal Hasan earned a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series a little over two weeks ago and is making a quick return against Nilson Rojas. Hasan delivered a spectacular knockout over Mridul Saikia on DWCS, which earned him a contract. In this fight, two undefeated prospects will face off as Hasan and Rojas are both 9-0 with seven knockouts.
Hasan is taller by one inch (5’7″ vs. 5’6″) and has a massive seven-inch reach advantage (70″ vs. 63″) over Rojas. In Hasan’s last fight, he showed that when he has the physical edge, he is extremely tough to beat with his aggressive, fast-paced style in the Octagon.
In this bout, Hasan is a -800 favorite while Rojas is a +550 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. With Hasan’s last four wins and seven of his previous eight coming by knockout, I’m taking him at -135 to pick up another victory by KO/TKO/DQ.
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