The most challenging aspect of any fantasy football draft isn’t figuring out who to draft; it’s who not to draft. That means going against the grain during the opening handful of rounds.
The players I’m opting to fade aren’t ‘do not draft’ candidates by any means. In fact, all of them are worth consideration – at a certain price. However, at their current ADP, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Here are four fantasy football busts that are better off on someone else’s team.
*ADP rankings are for half-PPR leagues*
Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid
Christian McCaffrey (ADP 7, RB3)
Offseason fantasy analysis is often complicated, an attempt to make sense of several variables prior to a single snap. Christian McCaffrey is not one of those examples. When healthy, the 49ers superstar is arguably the most prolific running back in the NFL. Still, therein lies the rub. CMC is the definition of boom or bust, frequently going from set it and forget it to injured list mainstay.
Predicting health isn’t the move, most of the time. In a sport as brutal as football, every player can be classified as an injury risk. With that being said, McCaffrey is an exception. The three-time All-Pro has played in 64 of a potential 101 games (63.6%) since the start of the 2020 season. Last year was another terrific campaign, in which CMC finished as the fantasy RB1. Still, there’s a ton of risk here for someone being taken so early. Even if the Stanford alum stays healthy, a slight dip in production at the age of 30 wouldn’t come as a shock.
Fading a future Hall of Famer has the potential to backfire. It’s easy to envision a scenario in which San Francisco’s standout goes off in September. Still, it’s unrealistic to pretend that McCaffrey isn’t a massive risk. Should he fall towards the end of the first round, that’s probably worth it for most managers. However, at the sixth or seventh overall pick, I’d rather target more reliable number one options.
George Pickens (ADP 23, WR 10)
Of all the names on this list, Pickens is the one I’m highest on. He was a can’t miss sleeper in most drafts last summer, rewarding opportunistic managers in a major way. The combination of a prolific passing game and an oft-injured CeeDee Lamb gave Dallas’ other standout pass catcher ample opportunities to produce. Ultimately, he finished with 93 receptions for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns (WR5). Keeping those numbers in mind, it’s no wonder that Pickens is being taken as early as the middle of the second round.
The logic in fading here is due to the wide receiver market. Should Pickens slip well into the third round, he becomes difficult to pass up. However, at his current price, I’d rather look elsewhere. Lamb remains the undisputed alpha in Dallas, and his chemistry with quarterback Dak Prescott should be on full display. That’s not to say the Cowboys can’t support two elite wide receivers; if anything, they’re one of the teams most likely to do so. Still, so much has to go right for Pickens to come close to his 2025 output.
In addition, those considering Dallas’ wideout could easily wait and find a similar option later in drafts. One, if not all of, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, Devonta Smith, Chris Olave and Zay Flowers should be available in the third round. It’s fair if you think Pickens is a better option than all of those names. Still, ask yourself this: better by how much? The chance to snag a high-end running back in round two, especially if you opened up with a receiver, could be difficult to pass up.
Colston Loveland (ADP 42, TE3)
This is a textbook definition of paying for a player’s ceiling. Much like the Cowboys, there’s plenty of reason to like the Bears for fantasy purposes this season. Their offense is electric, led by standout quarterback Caleb Williams. Head coach Ben Johnson might be the NFL’s best play caller, constantly putting his players in a position to succeed. In the offseason, Chicago traded away wide receiver DJ Moore to the Bills. As a result, there should be more targets up for grabs in the Windy City.
One player plenty of fans and pundits are backing is Colston Loveland. The 2025 first round pick was solid during his debut season, snagging 58 catches for 713 yards and six TDs (TE12). Considering how rare it is for rookie tight ends to put up numbers, the Michigan alum could be in store for more production going forward.
With all that being said, this is quite the jump in terms of ADP. Loveland going from TE12 to TE3 would be a meteoric rise. It’s not unfathomable, but I’m not sure I’d call it likely either. If he were available in the sixth or seventh round, the 22-year-old would be a must have. At the end of round three and start of round four? Definitely not. Although this doesn’t always come to fruition, the tight end position looks deep this season. Why use a premium draft asset on Loveland when names such as Harold Fannin Jr. and Tucker Kraft can be found later? Even if Chicago’s red zone target works out, his current ADP represents a best case scenario.
