The Pirates (64-69) have slipped up this month, falling out of the National League’s postseason chase. It’s a different story for the Padres (71-61), currently holding the Senior Circuit’s final wild card spot. Now, San Diego is attempting to defend its home turf against Pittsburgh and ace Paul Skenes. Can the Friars get it done on Tuesday night?
The Padres are favorites (-119) over the Pirates; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Padres pick, best bet today
- Padres ML (-119): Pittsburgh has done a poor job of providing run support for Skenes this season. On Tuesday, against a stellar pitcher such as King, could be more of the same. Recent improvement on offense makes the Padres worth a closer look this evening at home.
Pirates vs. Padres prediction, preview
It’s rare to see the Pirates as underdogs on a day in which Paul Skenes takes the mound. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the right-hander’s struggles this season. Coming off the heels of a Cy Young campaign, 2026 has proven surprisingly difficult for Pittsburgh’s ace. Over 139.0 innings pitched (26 starts), he’s produced a 3.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 171 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). The past few weeks have been rough, to say the least. During nine starts since the start of July, Skenes is on the hook for a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. To make matters worse, the 24-year-old is responsible for a 4.40 ERA on the road.
A season-long overview of San Diego’s hitting stats doesn’t impress anyone. The team is 21st in runs scored (566), including disappointing seasons from several big bats. However, the Padres have begun to turn things around at the plate. Since the start of July, they’re third in runs (236), sixth in homers (60) and fourth in OPS (.769). Previously struggling hitters such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill all own an OPS above .750 during that time. This shouldn’t be viewed as an abberration; if anything, San Diego’s early cold streak feels like the outlier. Skenes, for all his greatness, does give up his share of quality contact. In comparison, the Friars are tenth in barrel rate (8.2%) and sixth in hard-hit rate (40.7%).
San Diego’s Michael King is the kind of pitcher that can go toe to toe with any ace. The hurler comes into this one with a 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 128 strikeouts (7.7 K/9) during 149.0 innings of work. He’s been remarkably consistent, allowing three earned runs or less in 11 of his last 13 appearances. Over King’s last six seasons, he’s never finished with an ERA above 3.44. Despite relatively middling peripherals, the right-hander does have one major strength: contact suppression. King sits within the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.4%).
It’s somewhat stunning that Pittsburgh sits five games under .500 in spite of its lineup. The typically light-hitting Pirates have been an absolute force on offense. They’re averaging 4.93 runs per game, fifth-most in baseball. With that being said, the team hasn’t been nearly as effective over the past two weeks. The Buccos have scored 39 runs over their last ten contests, tied for 11th-worst in baseball over that time. To boot, Pittsburgh averages nearly one run fewer per game when playing on the road.
Best Bet: Padres ML (-119)
It feels unfathomable, but Pittsburgh has lost 15 of Skenes’ 26 starts this season. Given his subpar pitching as of late, a reversal of that trend feels unlikely on Tuesday. The Padres come into this one with momentum on offense, led by superstar Tatis Jr. Factor in a decent pitcher of its own in King, and San Diego is poised for another key victory tonight.
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