Tuesday’s MLB schedule features all 30 teams in action under the lights, including some big series with playoff implications and possible playoff previews. Nine of the games start just before or just after 7:00 p.m. ET, with six games in the later wave, which starts just after 9:30 p.m. ET. With every team on the board, there are plenty of options to consider for home run props. It’s a pretty quiet night weather-wise, with good hitting weather in several spots, especially at Sutter Health Park. Taking a look at the matchups, current form and weather forecasts, my top home run props for Saturday are from Trent Grisham, Luke Keaschall, and Rafael Devers.
It should be a great Tuesday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham | Yankees | Grisham has six homers in his last 13 games with a 62.2% hard-hit rate and a 13.5% barrel rate. He’ll take on an unproven rookie righty in favorable home run conditions in the Bronx. |
| Luke Keaschall | Twins | Keaschall is at Sutter Health Park and has hit four of his eight homers this season in his 20 games in August, going 26-for-76 (.342) with a .237 ISO, a .427 wOBA and a 7.8% barrel rate. He has three barrels in his last three games and has moved to the leadoff spot. |
| Rafael Devers | Giants | Devers has three homers in his last eight games with a 13% barrel rate. He’ll face Brady Singer, who has allowed 25 homers in 25 starts and has been smashed by lefties like Devers all season long. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Trent Grisham to Hit a Home Run (+335)
The Yankees host the Astros in one of the potential playoff series previews this week, and the Astros will call on 23-year-old righty Ethan Pecko for the first game of the week. Pecko will be making just his second MLB start, so it should be a good spot to attack for home run props at Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out to right field and temperatures in the mid-70s.
In Triple-A, Pecko had a 4.94 ERA and 4.31 FIP in 74 2/3 innings and gave up six homers over that span. He worked just 3 2/3 innings in his debut and hasn’t been working deep into games, leaving plenty of work for the bullpen after he leaves. Houston’s bullpen has a 4.05 ERA on the year, but ranks in the top-10 in the MLB in HR/9.
Grisham is only hitting .221 on the year but has 18 home runs, including six in his last 13 games. He homered on Sunday against the Blue Jays and will look to stay hot on Tuesday.
Grisham typically hits in the leadoff spot against righties, which will give him the most possible at-bats, and over his last 13 games, he has a 62.2% hard-hit rate and a 13.5% barrel rate. He has hit 12 of his 18 homers this season at Yankee Stadium, with 15 of them coming off righties like Pecko.
Getting Grisham at over +300 feels like a good value spot to attack as the Yankees look to set the tone early in their series against the ‘Stros.
Luke Keaschall to Hit a Home Run (+750)
The Twins are at Sutter Health Park against the A’s, and it should be a good spot to go hunting home run props, even though they’re taking on lefty Gage Jump. One of the Twins’ top bats over the past few weeks has been 24-year-old prospect Luke Keaschall, who I like as a long shot play on Tuesday’s slate.
Keaschall comes at these long odds since he only has eight homers on the season, but he has moved into the leadoff spot for the Twins in the last seven games for Minnesota and has stayed red-hot. Four of his eight homers this year have come in his 20 games in August, and he has gone 26-for-76 (.342) with six doubles, a .237 ISO, a .427 wOBA and a 7.8% barrel rate, which is more than double his barrel rate for the season.
From his leadoff spot, Keaschall had two doubles on Monday night in the series opener, and his most recent homer was Saturday in San Diego:
Jump has allowed five homers in his 43 1/3 innings at home this season with a 6.02 home ERA, compared to just a 3.49 ERA on the road. While he has the potential to dominate, righties like Keaschall have a .351 wOBA against him overall and a .377 wOBA at Sutter Health Park.
With homer-friendly conditions and so much momentum, Keaschall is a long shot play that makes sense if you’re looking to really swing for the fences on Tuesday night.
Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+357)
To round out Tuesday’s home run props, let’s stop by the Bay, where the Giants are hosting the Reds in the last game of the day. Cincinnati will start Brady Singer, who has been a great option to attack with home run props all season. The 30-year-old righty has served up 25 homers in his 25 starts and has a 5.75 road ERA with 12 homers in 12 starts away from Great American Ballpark.
Lefties like Devers have hit 18 of the 25 homers against him this season and have a .302 batting average, a.375 wOBA and a 9.4% barrel rate. Devers has also had success against Singer in the past, going 4-for-14 with a double and a home run.
Devers homered in his return to Boston over the weekend and added another blast on Monday in the first game of this series. He has three homers in his last eight games and five in his last 20 contests, even though he’s only hitting .208 over that span. Even though his average is still low, he has a 47.8% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate over his last eight games, and he’s making strong contact when he connects.
With such a favorable matchup and some very good swings lately, Devers is a great way to cap off Tuesday’s night’s home run props this Tuesday.
