For teams in the Wild Card races in both leagues, every game is critical entering the final month-plus of the season, and with three teams in the NL and six in the AL either holding onto a playoff spot by fewer than four games or fewer than four games behind a playoff spot, there are a lot of teams in desperation mode.
The Seattle Mariners, who trail in both the Wild Card race and the division by three games, snapped the Philadelphia Phillies’ nine-game winning streak in the series opener last night. Despite their winning run, the Phillies are only four games clear of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild Card.
First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Aaron Nola is set to take the mound for Philadelphia, and Seattle will counter with George Kirby.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners Best Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-105): Although the Mariners snapped the Phillies’ nine-game winning streak last night, they haven’t proven themselves to be reliable for sustained success. Kirby has been better than Nola for most of the season, but recent form suggests otherwise.
- Kyle Schwarber or Cal Raleigh – Either Player 1+ Home Runs (+121): Schwarber is a constant threat to go deep, doing so in two of his last three games, and while Raleigh has had a disastrous season, he did hit three last night.
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
Despite their positioning in the Wild Card race, the Phillies have played like contenders for the last several months, going 64-40 since replacing Rob Thomson with Don Mattingly as manager. Though Philadelphia had a cold stretch shortly after the All-Star break, it’s still gone 19-16 in the second half of the season, including 16-6 since the start of August. This month, it’s been on fire offensively, ranking third in OPS, as Kyle Schwarber leads all of the major leagues in home runs, and trade deadline acquisition Luis Arráez has put up some pretty solid production. As long as they maintain something close to that offensive form into the playoffs, the Phillies should remain contenders, as their top three rotation options (Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Zack Wheeler) are virtually unmatched. Despite struggles elsewhere in the bullpen, Jhoan Duran remains one of baseball’s best closers.
The Mariners are starting to turn the corner for one final push. Though they went on a 5-15 stretch after the All-Star break that would’ve ended their realistic playoff hopes if they weren’t in the disastrously bad AL West, they’ve picked up seven wins in their last 11 games, and their playoff chances have risen back to 38.7%. While their offense as a whole has still been pretty bad in August, ranking just 20th in OPS, Cal Raleigh seems to have remembered how to hit, posting his first career three-homer game in last night’s win. Randy Arozarena has also enjoyed perhaps the finest season of his career, hitting both a leadoff and walk-off homer on Saturday against the Chicago Cubs. However, Seattle’s pitching has somewhat collapsed this month. While its rotation has been okay still, its bullpen has posted an eye-popping 8.61 ERA so far in August, as a 22-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers and a 19-2 defeat to the Cubs certainly didn’t help. Trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez has been much worse then he was with the Chicago White Sox.
Nola has been the weak link in Philadelphia’s rotation, pitching to a 5.12 ERA in 26 starts, but he’s settled down a little bit as of late, sporting a 2.51 mark across his last five starts. Despite his poor ERA and his first-percentile pitching run value, he’s arguably gotten pretty unlucky this season, as his 45th-percentile expected ERA is a respectable figure. Additionally, he’s been good at generating chases and whiffs, exacerbating some of the Mariners’ biggest weaknesses, and he ranks in the 65th percentile in strikeout rate. His biggest weakness is his propensity to give up major damage, as he ranks in the bottom quartile in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate, but despite having one of the league’s hardest-hitting lineups on paper, Seattle ranks below the league average in both categories. Plus, Nola’s ERA is more than a full run better away from hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and the Mariners have been similarly ineffective both at home and on the road.
Kirby, on the other hand, has dipped some in form since the All-Star break. He’s made six starts since then, pitching to a 5.70 ERA, including a 7.13 mark in his last five starts. His advanced statistical profile is more mixed overall; though he has a 52nd-percentile expected ERA, he has several pronounced strengths and weaknesses. In particular, Kirby has been excellent at incentivizing chases, which could exacerbate one of the aggressive Phillies’ biggest weaknesses, and he very rarely issues free passes. However, he also doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs or strike out many batters, putting a lot of pressure on a defense that, second baseman Cole Young aside, hasn’t been very good this season. Additionally, Kirby ranks in the bottom quartile in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, and Philadelphia can certainly lace the ball. His extreme home-road splits should help (he’s posted a 3.40 ERA at home and a 5.19 mark on the road), especially since the Phillies have posted an OPS more than 100 points worse on the road, but his recent form is still concerning.
Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-105)
Although Seattle won the series opener last night and Philadelphia’s road offense hasn’t been good at all, Nola has been better as of late than Kirby and the Mariners’ bullpen is not to be trusted.
Strong Lean: Kyle Schwarber or Cal Raleigh – Either Player 1+ Home Runs (+121)
This prop is heavily reliant on Schwarber, who’s hit 27 homers against right-handed pitchers alone this season, but maybe Raleigh has turned a corner. After all, he still ranks in the 88th percentile in barrel rate, and all three of his homers last night came against righties.
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